Segan has been sandbagging it this year. He will take the win. 
Completely agree on both points. The truly amazing thing about Pog is his ability to stay at this level for an entire season (at least in year’s past).
I think this actually leads to lower peaks for him, but his baseline is so high he can win the hardest races throughout the year
Last year in July Jonas had better numbers than Pog on long climbs, and arguably he had the same advantage in 2021. The question becomes - can he drop him from the wheel without an exceptionally long or steep climb? If you assume Pog is ahead of him due to shorter/punchier climbs and bonus seconds then Jonas has to win on these longer climbs, and has to drop him from the draft
For MSR…
I love the combo of Ewan and de Lie. I have no clue if they’ll be able to work it out - but if de Lie can cover moves on the Poggio and then sit in a small group claiming Ewan is in the second group…that’s a cool possibility
To me it looks like both WVA and MVDP are trying to peak for holy week a bit later in the year, so I’m not looking for either.
Overall a nearly impossible race to predict - but I’ll go with an outsider and say Soren Kragh Anderson
I’ll call Girmay for the win. He looked good very early in the season and I think would be on another upward swing leading into the classics. I could see him getting away.
I don’t see anyone as being a real odds-on favorite which will really open it up on the last climbs.
Agreed. Since they hit CX hard I think they needed to take a comparatively late off season and then restart their build for spring and as a result they are targeting later peak.
I’d love for de Lie or someone unexpected to take MSR this year but my statistical bet would be for Pogacar.
The easiest Classic to finish but the hardest to win.
That is why I love it…
I can say that nobody will win by the way of Mohoric 2022. Only Pogacar can win by attacking the climb. So the overwhelming odds are to someone pulling in the last flat part or a 3-4 way sprint.
VWA and MVDP form is questionable
So these are my bets:
***** Pogi
**** VWA, Pedersen, Andersen
*** Pidcock
** Ewan, Girmay, Philipsen
he is out with a concussion.
I know this was tongue-in-cheek, but Sagan apparently took it seriously. 
I don’t have anybody in mind to fill his spot in the odds grid. But, purely from desire, I’d like one of the EF guys do well, sadly this course does not fit them well.
Magnus Cort looked good during Paris Nice, but I am not sure if he would be able to stay with a Pog attack and I do not know his descending skills. I will always route for a guy from the US, so go Powless.
Powless has certainly got a not insignificant chance… He does really well in long 1 day races, can descend well, has a motor and aero credentials to survive the few kilometers after the Poggio, and a decent little kick out of a small group…
With that said, its hard to look past De Lie, or even Ewan. It’s been seven or so years since a “sprinter” won it, and they have to be motivated to change that… (without pigeonholing De Lie, as he looks like he can do a bit of everything)
I think the chances of an actual bunch sprint are near non-existent. De Lie seems at least plausible because he might be able to survive a few selections. Ewan has mixed history of being able to do that in the past but not sure I’ve seen that form from him this year.
This is possibly the hardest race of the year to predict. I’ll have a go at it.
Many different rider phenotypes can win.
The Poggio isn’t really about soloing away anymore. It’s just the selector. It’s too short and too shallow for riders to truly go solo. It just gives us our 2 leading groups.
Then comes the complex bit. Virtually any strong rider that gets separation at the base of the Poggio descent has a high likelihood of winning. Because the second a solo or small number of riders get ahead… Group 2 will do group 2 things. It’s essentially prisoner syndrome. It’s almost a certainty in modern racing.
The only real solution is a team mate. That team mate sacrifices themselves. But, they bring passengers and that rider has to be confident they can win the resulting small bunch sprint.
This only really works for Ewan. He’s the only one left almost certain to win the reduced bunch sprint. He’s never had the support previously. This year it’s possible De Lie gets over the Poggio and tows Ewan back in time. The question mark is De Lie’s positioning into the Poggio? It hasn’t been great of late. It’s vital at San Remo.
Who else can get two riders over in the lead group?
Wout and Laporte?
Pogacar is the clear favorite. He’s on form and has brought a strong team. However, he has to completely drop Wout and MVDP to win. Difficult. Possible, but difficult.
Wout. Has won it before. Is now coming into great form. Has a strong team and may even have Laporte with him in the final. Can win multiple ways. Also, very good at coming 2nd 
Pederson. Needs a small bunch finish, without Ewan. Possibly, the fastest sprinter left., except…
De Lie. Incredible talent. Stunning sprint power, even after ridiculous Kjs. If he’s there for a small bunch finish without Ewan. He wins!
MVDP. Peak MVDP can absolutely win San Remo. I believe he’s the only rider in the current peloton that could drop everyone on the Poggio and take it to the line. But, is he prime? Sadly, he seems to be struggling with multiple peaks. He can still win, but he has to drop De Lie, Pederson and Ewan.
Alaphilippe. Should be in the mix. I’m not confident he’ll win, but you’d be crazy to rule him out. Needs to be solo or a very small group.
Mohoric. Can he do it twice? Unlikely. His trick won’t work twice.
Basically, I have no idea
I absolutely wouldn’t bet anything on anyone.
Gun to my head, Pogi wins.
I reckon it’ll be a support rider that wins it. An opportunist, sent up the road because the leaders can’t stop watching each other.
Laporte is a good pick. I would hazard a guess it could be a Jumbo.
I haven’t seen much of Ganna, but I hope he’s in good form and a good position to drop some Watt bombs. If Pidcock is out, Ganna may not have to pull 45 of the last 50km
All this is true, yet he has only won 1 race against quality competition. I guess it’s a matter of time…., but that’s the reason I left him out of the betting grid.
It seems a like a dark time for Colombian cycling.
- Uncertainty regarding Egan’s recovery
- Don’t see any junior golden kids in the pipeline.
- Nairo and MALopez out of pro peloton with doubts about their integrity.
- Rigo in the verge of retirement
- Chavez really never recover from that nasty infection 5 years ago.
- Martinez can’t put it together when it counts big.
- Higuita success is limited to early season races and select stages.
- Camargo hasn’t shown anything yet.
- Buitrago limited to climbing stages.
- Tejada and Rubio are barely marginal players
In 2020 at some point there were 4-5 guys in the top 10 of TdF classification……They can’t win on raw talent and genetic altitude advantage. Training methods and talent development is lacking. Head work, adaptation to life in Europe….
MVDP - Philipsen duo is an interesting combination for Alpecin. MVDP not on top form, but Philipsen on fire and has yet to figure out if he is a pure sprinter or a classics rider. They could both be in the front over the Poggio and then have the advantage to the line.
Magnus Cort has the perfect physique for this race, however he needs to be positioned in top ~20 into the Poggio to have a go - which is not his strong suit.
A vote for Jasper Philipsen
true but, would also be awesome to see.
I agree, Philipsen w/ MVDP seems like it could be a TKO. My only doubt is MVDP’s form.
Pogi is a great bet, but I just love an underdog and he has seemed so dominant this year. I would think he is the best bet. His Paris Nice performance was stunning.
WVA & Laporte is a great duo, but WVA fitness in my eye is unknown. They guy is incredible so I would be surprised if he was firing on all cylinders though it seems unlikely.
Alaphilippe’s fitness seems less than great so far this year. If he were 100% I would put him as a strong contender. Regardless of his fitness, I think if he is there he will make a move as that appears to be his style. Easily one of the most exciting riders to watch of his generation.