Agree that the Vuelta was not the main factor in Rog’s decision. I think some of the drama at the Vuelta was a result of Rog’s displeasure at his situation… the TJV team was built on Rog’s success, but he’s also clearly not #1 in their TdF plans and the TdF is the only thing his career is missing. While it’s not a good thing for TJV to lose a talent like Rog, I don’t see how they keep him AND keep him happy.
Rog to another good team will make next year’s TdF much more interesting and give us at least a 3 rider fight.
Tend to agree with everyone regarding the merger as well. Not good for anyone really… riders, staff, fans.
“star male rider Keegan Swenson is not on the provisional list, but is expected to ride.”
Not sure why he’s not on provisional start list, but Keegan is literally pre-riding the course this week and skipped Lifetimes’s last event, so I’m pretty sure he’ll be there.
Some big names on the list, but not Jasper Stuyven who just won Euro gravel championship. Looking forward to this weekend of racing with Il Lombardia and this.
Impressive how fast the UCI Gravel Worlds has attracted such a quality field….top tier riders across both men’s and women’s fields.
Gonna be a big ask for Keegan or any of the US riders to do well against that field….this is going to race much more like a road race than a gravel race here in the US. Heard Payson talk about how they will be relying on Alex’s to help guide them through getting Keegan in the right places, etc early in the race…but that isn’t a field in which to get your first dose of Euro jostling and field jockeying!!
Would love to see Wout take home a jersey……and I think Demi has to be the overwhelming favorites in the women’s race.
I wonder what the narrative will be if Keegan doesn’t win…
It’s just a road race?
He doesn’t know the tactics?
He’s better at altitude?
He’s better at longer distances?
The sun was in his eyes?
I kid
In fairness, I’m hoping he does well. The US team is gigantic. If they race with proper tactics, they could do very well.
The course looks much improved from last year. Some very steep selective climbs. One very close to the finish. So, it’s kinda like a mini Flanders. Short punchy efforts with riders falling off the back after each selection. Riders hoping to win will need to race it from the front.
A different style race to many US gravel races.
The strongest rider will likely win, provided they have a clean race. Wout is obviously the favorite. It would be great for him to get the win. At this stage, we’re all pulling for him. He’s lucky that MvdP isn’t racing, as this course is literally built for him to go solo on the final climb.
I hope Keegan has been doing brutal V02 efforts into anaerobic capacity and repeatability work. That’s what wins this race.
Women’s
If Demi keeps it upright, she’s the favorite, obviously. PFP likely in with a good chance. In fact, the women’s field is pretty well stacked. It’s their Lombardia…
anybody know if GCN+ is covering the gravel race(s)? they showed the European championship, but I’m not seeing worlds as an “upcoming” race. have a friend riding the women’s 40-44. she’s been doing sections of the course all week. there are climbs over 20%. she was substantially faster walking them than her friend was riding
They have arguably a better squad then Ineos. With Vlasov, Hindley, Kaemna, Uittebroecx ,Higuita and Buchmann. And they have some very decent rouleurs as well.
Yeah, I think the question will be whether. Also v and Hindley want / are able to help Rog.
Assuming that Hindley will now target the Giro and maybe Vladivostok for the Vuelta…or is Vladivostok now out in the cold re: any GC ambitions (not that it would not be warranted)?
I mean if I am Hindley, unless I have accepted that the Tour is out of reach, I’m not terribly happy today.
Analyzing what a Tour team could look like built around Roglic, he’d actually be well supported, so long as a few things could be made to happen($).
-Jai Hindley is an unfortunate victim in this, as he gets demoted to their second tier GC leader, by a big margin. He’d make for an amazing Super Domestique for the Tour, perhaps on the back of sole leadership at the Giro. It might take some financial convincing for him to want to play the part of helper.
-Dani Martinez is inbound from Ineos, and has proven himself to be a very good domestique. He’s probably on good money, and a four year contract, so he’s likely to follow orders, and be given some opportunities at week long races where he’s proven himself.
-Jungels is a lock, and will be super valuable. He’s the closest to a Van Aert that Roglic will get in 2024 at Bora.
-Nico Denz comes in, and has had great success in stages at the Giro, so it might be worth giving him a try at the Tour, where he could help take a bit of pressure off of the team by making the breakaway of the day.
-Kamna is probably the best climbing domestique Roglic will have, and has proven himself to hold up over three weeks.
-Uijtdebroeks will be Bora’s GC leader at some point, but it would probably be great for him to continue riding a bit as a support role, with some protection himself. He has 15 years to win the Tour, so playing the part of helper for a couple years to benefit Roglic will give him a ton of experience towards his own ambitions.
That only leaves one spot up for grabs for someone like a Zwiehoff or Schachmann.
Obviously this isn’t great news for Sam Wellsford, who will certainly hoping for a return to the Tour, but after not cracking the top ten in a stage this year, hasn’t earned that right. Van Poppel will help a ton for him, and perhaps might be a wise pick to take to the Tour in support of Roglic for the hectic finishes of non-mountain stages, as he’s simply the best in the world at that.
So all in all, he could have a pretty well rounded team. Someone like Politt would’ve been nice to keep around, but Denz or Jungles could probably fill that role well enough.
I should also note, that I omitted Vlasov from the previous discussion of Bora. He’s demonstrated nothing that would show me that he is willing to work for or with another rider, so I’d keep him as far away from Roglic’s programme as possible to avoid any drama.
This whole merger thing makes less sense every day. Obviously, there are a lot of reports and some are not that trustworthy, but it seems the main impetus for everything is the TJV need money. I guess Sepp’s Vuelta bonus wasn’t in the budget. Basically, they are trying to “merge” to get the Soudal sponsorship. The number of riders who would move from SQS to the new team would likely be minimal and staff close to zero. In the scenario where SQS dissolves, Lefevere gets some money for selling his title sponsor to TJV and everyone else gets screwed. In the scenario above (where Lefevere starts a ‘new’ team with the old parts), I don’t even know what has been accomplished… Lefevere gets money, TJV get sponsor, everyone else gets an opportunity in 2024, I guess?
In the scenario where SQS dissolves, it is my understanding the the riders are free to sign with other teams. Their contracts are not automatically acquired by TJV. I read somewhere that Remco doesn’t want to ride for TJV. It’s also mentioned that Soudal sponsorship is tied to Remco, so I don’t see how we get a scenario with a new ‘Soudal-Visma’ team and Remco rides for Ineos, for example. If SQS does not dissolve, it’s even less clear how this is a ‘merger.’ More like a sponsor and couple riders being transferred, maybe?
I guess we will get all the answers in the next 10 days, but everything about this is confusing.
Basically, they are trying to “merge” to get the Soudal sponsorship. The number of riders who would move from SQS to the new team would likely be minimal and staff close to zero. In the scenario where SQS dissolves, Lefevere gets some money for selling his title sponsor to TJV and everyone else gets screwed. In the scenario above (where Lefevere starts a ‘new’ team with the old parts), I don’t even know what has been accomplished… Lefevere gets money, TJV get sponsor, everyone else gets an opportunity in 2024, I guess?