I would imagine that without weight loss, he will not get to 4wkg on current volume. LV + other rides? Yes, absolutely. LV alone? Unlikely. 43% is a massive change, especially when you consider he has already gained so much in 18 months and presumably hasn’t changed his plan. He will plateau sooner or later, and I predict long before hitting 4wkg.
There is no magic number, but I’ll give you my numbers, in case it is helpful. I started structured training at 195W @ 64-65kg Oct 2019. Prior, I rode about 6 months unstructured, at an average of 4-5hrs/week (no consistency). After first SSBLV I switched to MV, and averaged 6-7hrs. I managed to make it to 4wkg around May 2020, but I did add an extra hour or so of easy rides to MV, so I was averaging 8ish hours/week. Over the summer I rode unstructured, 7-10hrs depending on the week, and slowly crept to
Around 4.25wkg (268W @ 63kg). I started structured training beginning of Nov, and now I average 9-12hrs, depending on the week. By most recent estimate from last week, I’m around 4.4-4.45.
From a load perspective, my CTL on Jan 1, 2020 was 45. It was around 65 by April 1, hovered 70-85 during the summer, and is now at a relatively steady 78-82 for the last 2 months.
From those numbers, you can tell how despite my volume and load ramping up, FTP gains have slowed. I’ve posted my history elsewhere, but it took roughly 3-4 months to make the big jump from 3wkg to almost 4wkg, then improvements became a trickle. I suspect if I want to hit 5wkg, I’ll need to add both volume and intensity, and have a lot of patience.
Note - any weight loss is unintentional, it has always hovered 60-65kg for me.
Yeah but he had accumulated a massive amount of time being Pinot. If I could have half the time being Pinot that he’s had… I’d be a way faster cyclist.
I’m going to say that 8 is the minimum. The fastest guys I know seem to ride 10-20 hours per week. Maybe the average is 12. The 20 hour guy is an outlier but he’s a really fast master’s rider.
For me, low volume has been sufficient: I’m 42 and started cycling 18 months ago. My FTP when I started was 180 watts; I only did low volume plans (but very consistently) and now I’m at 270 watts (@66.5 kg, so 4w/kg). I feel (hope) that there is room for improvement, so I now just started to add some extra Z2 when I have time available. I hope to get to 4.5w, and maybe, long term, to 5w/kg, though that may be wishfull thinking, given my age and limited training time available. We’ll see, but in the meanwhile I’m just enjoying the process.
I’ve just done LV on Plan Builder. No goal events in mind so it just keeps rolling. I live in a great cycling area with lots to explore. Getting faster = getting to see more
Thanks! No previous cycling or endurance experience; I come from a natural bodybuilding background (never even did any cardio training during that time ). So yes, keep at it, enjoy the process and you will get faster.
I think what you’re really asking (maybe) is if you will stall out on LV plans? To which I’d ask: have you? And I assume you’re asking then, assuming you’ve stalled out, what return on investment will you see for additional hours? Which, again, is highly individual. The only way to find out is to try.
Milo of Cronton trained for the Olympics by lifting and carrying a calf as it grew to a bull. Could work with a goat
He was said to have achieved the feat of lifting the bull by starting in childhood, lifting and carrying a newborn calf and repeating the feat daily as it grew to maturity.
You might double your hours in an attempt to get to 4w/kg and end up injured, burned out and slower. You may be physically incapable of 4w/kg.
So the best way to approach is not to set an arbitrary goal with a formulaic plan, but to see how you can get faster, and continue to try to get faster and see whatever w/kg that means. Imo.
maybe there is some hope. What was your previous cycling experience?
). So yes, keep at it, enjoy the process and you will get faster.