According to the AI prediction, my FTP will go up in the next detection from 252 to 277W, a 9.9% jump. Im obviously quite happy about that, so not complaining. Im more interested on why I’m getting there. Im on the masters plan, so really only 2 intense workouts per week and I dont always get time for the 2 endurance rides. I would have expected fairly modest increases with that schedule.
So I’m quite happy but just wanted to some thoughts on why this program is suddenly bringing sizeable gains. (My peak FTP has been 300W but thats was around 4 years ago)
I don’t see anything in your training that indicates your AIFTP should go up 10%. It’s either a bug and your should reach out to TR support, or that AIFTP will come down once you get closer to the day.
I think he means that he don’t believe your training justifies a 10% jump in FTP, not that the FTP prediction isn’t there.
That said, I have to disagree. You have a fairly aggressive ramp rate in workout difficulty and seem to be able to handle it. If you continue finding your scheduled workouts “only” hard, then a 10% jump seems within what the new AI likes to do. My last block I had the same suggested sweetspot workout and did a 4.9 threshold and got a 7.1% increase.
Don’t forget that prediction is contingent upon you completing the workouts on your plan to the model’s satisfaction - and as noted, it’s quite aggressive. Looking at Dana -1, personally those overs at 120% would destroy me, but if you get through that ok then a decent bump in training level is looking justified.
Yeah, the workouts have been tough but doable with a bit of concentration. I was dreading the 3x20min at SS today but as soon as I started the 3rd interval I knew I was fine. Quite happy with the AI scheduling so far
It’s important to remember that the TRAIFTP is aiming to put you where you will rate a 3.x Threshold workout as Hard. Considering your last TH 3.0 you rated Moderate, your next TH 4.1 you rated Hard, and your upcoming TH 5.0 and 4.8 workouts it’s predicting to be Hard, it would make sense that the following detection bumps you up to get that to a number that brings you back to a TH 3.0 at Hard.
It’s also 2+ weeks away, so take all this with a grain of salt.
I’m in a similar situation in that I have got a much bigger bump on the AI predicted FTP than seems reasonable to me… I’m pretty sure it’s put me at my highest ever number, and I’m only three weeks back into a training plan and my overall load has been lower than normal since I moved house in October…
I seem to be getting used to indoor training again, and certainly the first workout was really hard but a similar more recent one was much more manageable.
However, the prediction for my next bump is way more than I’ve ever achieved before and feels a bit unrealistic to me…
Up to this point, I’ve felt that the AI FTP predictions were “good enough” for me to avoid ramp tests etc, but this latest one just feels like it’s been a bit generous (though I admit I’m not as dialled in to my own view on this as I have been in the past).
Anyone willing to take a look at my calendar and weigh in? I’m not interested in a vanity metric… I’d rather have my training be on point!
You’re adding a ton to your calendar outside the plan, so let’s see what the TR folks have to say (maybe @Caro.Gomez-Villafane ?), but my first thought is that you just got a significant new bump today (congratulations!), so your next prediction is a month away…take that with a grain of salt. It will adjust.
You’re nailing your workouts and only have a couple “Very Hard” ratings, so even though you’re adding a ton, it looks like it’s giving you great workouts. I would advise you to not think of your TR AIFTP as your “hour power”, or whatever definition you’ve used in the past, and just see it as the number that makes your TH 3.x workouts feel “Hard”. That’s the goal, and it seems to be doing exactly that.
Yeah, I guess the real test will be how the workouts feel after this rest week… I’m also taking today’s bump with a pinch of salt as it’s put me (I think) at the highest number I’ve ever had, which I found surprising - but as you say, it’s a number for setting the difficulty of the workouts and should be viewed accordingly.
Training was light prior to the most recent block. Looks like the system is giving you the types of gains you’d expect when you resume training after a break. This is usually the portion of fitness which improves the fastest.
You had a few rides rated hard lately. If you’re actually going to get anywhere near the predicted gains, I’d expect rides to start feeling easier soon. It’s curious to me that the AI is predicting hard for all your interval sessions right up until the big increase.
That’s not been my experience at all. My fitness is in a similar place as OP, increased volume/consistency after a break giving those rapid early gains.
I’ve had smaller predicted fitness gains, and yet a lot of rides feeling moderate, and easier than I would have normally scheduled for myself. Seems like if everything actually felt hard, I’d be from not improving as much.
Interesting, seems that it is working in different ways for different people. For me my first 28 day block started and 245w, predicted 267w and achieved 260w. I’m now half way through the next block starting at 260w and predicted to achieved 280w.
Note: I was around 265w in October last year and didn’t train much November thru mid Jan so some of this gain is catching up.
For me every workout (apart from endurance) in the three week blocks i’ve ended up marking as hard or very hard. After each VO2, Threshold or SS workout PL levels for the next workout of the same type have a 0.75 to 1.5 level increase the following week into keep them as the AI predicting “Hard” as the most likely outcome as my fitness increases.
. See how it goes. Told myself its essentially only 3 more hard workouts in this block
