This highlights the shortfall of estimated ftp and the metrics based off of it. The training load is relative to your ftp so I agree their estimated ftp is just way low. They prob have low vo2 but high ftp (since ramp test is estimating vo2 max power then assuming on avg ftp is a percent of this number).
I don’t think you could go week after week hitting 800-1000 TSS as a weekend warrior (400-500 TSS x 2) and not burn out.
If it’s accurate, become a pro Ironman and go get paid!
Remember, these rides were calculated with an FTP of 267, just before my ramp test which put me at 283.
I really don’t think my FTP estimate is too low. Today I did the first workout with the new 283 FTP and Warlow+1 murdered me. I had to drop it down 3% to get through it, which has never happened before.
Edit: I did some comparing myself…apparently I did much harder efforts at my outdoor ride than at the Warlow+1 workout, but I felt way better outdoors even with 120km in the legs. I think overheating might play a big role here as I only have two small fans cooling me and I’m sweating like crazy indoors. Will look into getting a proper fan.
Yes but riding two days in a row for 4-6 hrs each at ~80-85% ftp (recalculating your IF with the higher ftp) is still pretty out there.
We are not suggesting youre making up your numbers, but that the estimated ftp is not a good estimated value (for you). However, with all estimation techniques, they are pretty good at estimating
/ fitting a line (or curve) near the cluster of data points and lose accuracy the farther away they get (ie estimation techniques cannot predict outliers well / these estimations will do a relatively better job estimating ftp of the average rider than an outlier athlete - which it sounds like you are)
Probably quite individual, I seem to be gifted with quite good recovery, but lower adaptability…
The valleys you see in there are not burn-outs, that‘s work sending me on ships were I typically get less than 6h of sleep per night and my circadian rythm gets absolutely murdered…
I would argue that your ftp is poorly estimated by the test, unless you are a pro rider.
I’m not suggesting that you are doing anything wrong, but I’m saying the test does not do a good job at estimating your individual ftp (as well as the other poster).
Holding all other factors constant, increasing the FTP decreases the TSS for any given ride. So if your ftp (literally the number put into the formula for TSS - I’m not saying if you got fitter) was higher you would have a lower training load for any given time period on the chart you just showed us.
Look at this pro training log:
This world tour pro - classics rider- averages about 1000 TSS per week riding like 30hpw. Unless you’re a pro or emerging elite and are out for 4-5 hour rides a few times per week with efforts - or racing 100mile road races, I just do not think that you are holding that training load with regularity. I would suspect that your FTP is just higher and your training load is therefore lower (tho sure you still ride a lot. This has nothing to do with your hours per week but the relative difficult it is for you to ride these rides that you’re doing).
(Mostly) All prediction models do a good job of predicting the average. They cannot do a good job of predicting outliers and observations (in this case athletes ftp number) away from the big clusters of observations. That said, I think for people in the 2-3.5 w/kg range (and lower absolute power), I bet the estimation technique works really well. Below and above that range it’s a hit or miss (prob where you and the other rider are- myself included).
Hmmm, something to think about. I always thought my FTP was quite correct as it correlates well with what I can hold for an hour and what feels like redlining. For what it‘s worth I am still clise to your range at 4W/kg, but I am a big boy (82-84kg).
I am spent after 40 min-1h continiously riding at FTP, so that sounds about right. But I can also rack up 40min+ in the anaerobic power zones doing intervals (e.g. 2h workout).
Progressions levels show me I can do lvl 8-10 in sweetspot, VO2 and sprint, so you may be right there. Probably FTP is not quite representative for the short side of the curve and I skew more anaerobic.
