This analysis is great. A little insight on the 2018 Rattler is that it was unusually bogged down with mud and so the course was much slower than in prior years. I suspect the Rattler’s qualifying times in 2013-2017 were much more “appropriate” to final outcomes than 2018.
Of course that’s all out the window now that the course venue has changed for 2019 … it is a totally different experience out in Reveille Peak Ranch versus Rocky Hill. Along with (currently) being ~4 miles longer, it is a slower course (very few straightaways and lots of momentum-busting turns and climbs), … I’m curious to see if the Leadville Team adjusts the corral brackets.