Howdy!
How realistic is my finish time for the Leadville 100 MTB? My FTP is 286 and I weigh 175-180lb. I train in Denver and the foothills (7-10k elevation). I’m pretty solid on technical mountain bike trails. I’ve been riding a mix of trainer and outdoor rides averaging about 10 hours a week since March 1 with higher volume the last few weeks. Outdoor rides have been 30-50 miles of techy mountain biking or road climbing with 4-5k of climb. Average speed on the mtb rides are around 10mph.
I don’t see a finish time listed in your post, but I think you have a good shot at under 9 hours if that FTP is at altitude. If that’s a 7k FTP, you’ll likely be tight to hit 9 hours. If it’s a 10k FTP, you should have lots of time to spare (huge power difference in that spread for most people). I’m about 10lbs lighter and have gone 8:4x 3 times at leadville with normalized power right around 190. My sea level FTP is around 305w, which translates to ~250w at 10k feet. You might want to check out Bestbikesplit, I think they have a free trial and you can plug your numbers in for Leadville and they will estimate your finish time. With you being about 10lbs heavier than me, I’d bet ~205 NP would bring you in under 9 hours with a bit of a buffer. That’s about 72% of your FTP, should be very doable if you fuel and execute well.
Thank you for the reply. I’m an idiot and didn’t have my goal in there haha. Goal is 9-9:30. FTP is at 5.2k.
Lots of things can swing it one way or the other, but I think 9-9.5 is in the ballpark based on that FTP at ~5k. Since you ride a bit at altitude, I’d expect that could be an advantage depending on how it affects you. If you can get to leadville between now and the race, I’d suggest trying a couple segments (climbs) at ~9 hour pace and see how it feels (lots of segments to choose from on strava). That would give you an idea of where to target for race day. And it really depends on your goals. If you are primarily looking to finish without the risk of blowing up or limping to the finish, you might pace conservatively. If you think a big buckle is a possibility and that’s a goal, I’d ride at that pace as long as it seems possible. Worst thing is you blow up a bit and limp it home.
Great. Thank you for the details! I’m excited/nervous.
I remember this podcast being very helpful. How to Race the Leadville 100, Elevation and FTP, Nutrition, and More - Ask a Cycling Coach Podcast 486
I forget if it is this one or not, but there is one where they go into power to weight and normalized power for each finish time and it was way higher than mine. If it’s not that podcast there was one around Leadville last year where they gave ballparks. I think I was half a watt per kilo lower than the estimate though.
Definitely familiarize yourself with some really fast tires that aren’t super fragile. That can be worth 10 minutes on even decent other tires, and is probably one of the biggest gains that you can make with gear. Practicing getting more aero for the flats will save you a lot too