Can I complete Leadville 100 under 12 hours with 206 FTP?

Completed 2019 Leadville 100 mountain bike race in 12:13, need to be under 12 hours for a belt buckle.
Since the race, purchased a Kickr, choosing random Trainerroad workouts for a couple months. Starting FTP=206, two months in it’s still 206.
2019 had great weather but fell behind on my nutrition and had a tough last 5 hours. Assuming decent weather and better nutrition, can I break 12 hours with such a low FTP?
I’m a very experienced road and MTB rider, but have always been slow.

Follow a TR plan. Start with Sweet Spot Base 1 & 2.

Choose a volume that you can complete consistently.


Why do you think that your FTP should change when you choose random workouts (without following a plan)?

I have made a bump of 30 watts in my first three month (220->250) of Trainerroad simply by following the plan (low volume) they made. I honestly don’t want to think about what workout to choose - it is so much easier when my calendar is already filled with a workout that someone else has chosen for me.

But back to your question, yes I do think that could be possible but there are so many variables. You just need to be 13min faster - and Trainerroad definitely did that to me in the past year that I have been using it.


Based on that and assuming your FTP now is what it was then, I’d say yes but think your endurance is a much larger factor than your FTP. My FTP is higher than yours and I doubt I could do 12:13 since I don’t train for events over 2 hours.