There’s a couple Strava segments and 10km TT routes near me that I fancy testing on now I’ve got some training under my belt.
I’ve got previous times, power and obviously distance for them. How do people work out a pace to aim for?
Going ham straight away is clearly wrong and negative/positive splits requires a target for each half. Do you use a goal time and then hold around your pb power from your current power curve? Looking at previous attempts this time wouldn’t work as I was lighter and stronger in 2019 when I last did it.
Similarly there’s plenty of hill climb racing near me that I fancy come autumn where I’ve never ridden so only have distance to plan from.
10km is going to be somewhere between 12-18 minutes depending on bike, terrain, aero etc. (I think). I’d probably just aim at FTP or just over and see how I’m feeling after 5 minutes or at half way. I paced a recent 5 mile TT this way and ended up on a slight negative split, but not by much, probably +5 to 10W only.
I have a blog about this type of pacing but feels too much of self promo to post, but you can find it if you like. Since you’ve been training I would first try the TT based off of feel with the goal of not blowing up and finishing strong. This pacing exercise will be really useful but you’ll also most likely give everything that you’ve got that day. Then, check the power, look at splits, figure out where you need to go harder, etc.
For the hill climb, make sure you finish strong. We all feel super human in the first minute, but by definition if there is too much anaerobic power used, the amount of hydrogen produced in the body will force us to ride below FTP which is surely not the fastest way up the climb!