How long until max. FTP?

Hi guys,
is it possible to estimate how long i can train until my FTP doesn’t increase anymore?
Obviously, there is no formula for it and it depends on how much hours i train and a lot other factors, but with about 10h/week training i guess i will stop getting better sooner or later. Is there anyone who tracked his performance over the years and can share his/her experience?

I have an road bike for about 4 years but i just started training regularly about 9 month ago and 6 month ago i started with TR/structured training.

I am 26, ~2m (6’5’’) tall and have about 100kg (220lbs). When i started, i was able to push about 300W for an hour and 320W on the FTP ramp test.
I know, FTP isn’t everything and i don’t try to flex with it. For me it is a great tool to track my improvement and it keeps me motivated, more than everything else.

After 9 Months of training, i got ~370W on the ramp test and i am probably able to push real ~340W for an hour.

How much do you think i will be able to push in 1-2 years?
When do you think i will start to stagnate significant? Where do you think is my “real FTP” cap, 375W, 400W, 425W, 450W?

I’d say - Don’t put a cap on it psychologically - you’ll either hamstring yourself in terms of setting an unrealistic target or alternatively set an under cooked goal and just settle on that.

Instead, keep doing what you’ve said you’re already doing - focussing on the ‘process’ - you might surprise yourself with what you achieve.

Notwithstanding this, at your size and reported starting point / progress to date, over 400 ought to be sensibly achievable however what margin above that you get to over the next 12 to 24 months will depend so heavily on a wide range of variables that it would be impossible (and fruitless) to try and estimate.

Also - don’t forget that ‘life’ often gets in the way :joy:

I’ve never heard anyone propose an answer to this question. The closest thing I’ve seen in TR’s own data on their athletes that I’ve seen somewhere on these forums. They show users by cohort and various specs on their training, including -I think- how much they’ve improved their FTP. That might give you a rough gauge, based on your age and gender, what others have experienced.

At 25 you are in a good place. You are going to need to quit your job, obviously, and retire to papa’s country estate in the alps. Have him do this F1 style and buy you a grand tour team to fully support your advancement. If you do everything they say and dedicate yourself to this 100% I am willing to personally guarantee you will continue to make gains in your performance for 5 years.

If you neglected to be born to a billionaire and have to DIY your training and keep a day job like a peasant I am sorry to tell you that you will need to tell me how long this piece of string I am holding is before I can provide an answer.

Seriously though, nobody with an ‘unreasonable’ FTP ever got there buy guessing at limits. Put in years++ and it will become very obvious to you what range you can get to at what levels of time commitment.




Rule of thumb I’ve heard coggen post is that almost everyone can reach 4w/kg. Beyond that physiological factors begin to come into play

If you focus on the process rather than the result, it won’t matter. You end up where you end up. Could take a year, could take 10 years.

Could be now, or could be never.

I don’t know if there is a real answer, I would say most people very likely plateau before truly hitting their full potential in my very amateur opinion

Seems like there is only one way to find out

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