I’m nearly 49, and my FTP is 3.82 w/kg (according to TR’s AI FTP detection). I would love to get to 4.5 w/kg over the next year or two… then maintain it for as long as possible. Is that possible? Or have I peaked? I have been doing TR FTP increase plans for about 6 months, buy apart from an initial increase it seems to have plateaued.
It’s really hard to say if you have peaked or not 
What I will say is that it’s completely normal and expected that FTP increases will slow, stop and dare I say it reverse over time.
Also, I know we all do it, and I am certainly guilty of it, but having a w/kg target is rarely helpful - especially one that has you improving 18% after your noob gains have stopped
Just carry on what you are doing and add volume if you can.
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You almost certainly haven’t topped out. 4.5 might be a stretch, though. That’s a hefty jump.
If I were you:
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More volume never goes out of style assuming recovery is well managed
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Six months of 4 week base/build/specialty blocks … it might be time to change that up and get a novel stimulus.
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I’d be tempted to start a new plan. I’d go back 8 weeks and create a new 24 week plan, with the intention of only doing the 8 week build phase. Have a look through the different disciplines and choose the one that looks like fun / different to what you’ve been doing. They’ll all raise your FTP if you follow them.
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Can really see much history on your ftp, this year doesn’t seem to have moved a huge amount. Last year you didn’t train so much as now or ‘24.
Have you tried multiple plans, Approaches, settings, etc?
Are you eating/sleeping well?
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what’s your ftp compared to 6 min max test?
Until October i was just mindlessly zwifting…. 3 or 4 hours per week, 80% zone 2, the occasional kom attempt or race. I don’t know what my FTP was before october … 220 ish when I last did a ramp test in zwift a year or two back.
From October until now I have just done TR plans for FTP increase… I have used the recommended settings, although I did a volume check yesterday which increased a couple of days by 15 mins.
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According to TR power records, my best 6 min was 271w in August 2025, my FTP now is 252w
if that 6 min power is still accurate (which im guessing it is not, I’d bet its higher as they are pretty close), I’d start working on getting the z5 power up (ie raise the ceiling).
IMO, to get to 4.5 at 49, you will need above average genetics. In my 20s, I got to around 4 w/kg racing cat 3/4. No amount of secret intervals or training was going to propel me to 5 w/kg and into cat 2.
From listening to top coaches, if you train consistently year over year, you might be able to add and keep 5 or 10 watts per year. It’s a long term commitment with no quick fix.
Don’t get hung up on a certain FTP. Enjoy the journey.
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I don’t think week 12 will have helped the AI prediction.
Ygoid that the check volume offered more time, but you won’t see much happen until your next prediction date passes. Given you were doing 3-4hrs and now are at 5.5hrs it looks like something is improving.
What I do is use that day to rebuild the plan half a dozen times in different approaches, settings, indoor/outdoor - as much as is relevant to how I want to train, but also a few mad settings to see if more is going to help or hinder.
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How much more volume can you add?
Getting to 4.5 on <6hr/week at 49 requires some good genetics, who knows if you can or not but the more you can do the better of a chance you will have at hitting it.
No, you’re only doing 5-6 hours. You can steadily increase your hours over time.
If you have been training for 20 hours a week consistently for the past 20 years then maybe but your calendar says otherwise.
You still have further room to go and further stimulus you can add to see results. Keep up the work!
We should revisit this oldie but a goodie topic.
4.5 W/KG would put a 49 year old at the far right of the bell curve distribution. If you look at the 50+ chart, 4.5 W/KG is even more of an outlier.
But we all know these old, fast guys. They do exist. IME, they are almost always the types that ride 12+ hour a week and have been doing it for decades at a high level.
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In the 50-60 year old bracket, the drop off is even steeper.
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I just looked through your calendar, and there is nothing to suggest doing what you are doing will get you to 4.5 w/kg. Have you peaked is a different question - almost certainly not. Your volume isn’t very high, and hasn’t move much in the past weeks. I would suggest prioritizing increasing volume slowly over the next year, while trying to hit 2 hard sessions per week.
I’m 51, so I know at this age isn’t exactly a time to get low handing fruit, but if you haven’t put the hours in or been at a high level of volume in the past, you most likely have a significant amount of room to grow.
I saw you weight was a couple of kg lower at one point, so not sure how much bf% room you have to lose.
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This pretty much covers it.
It is very, very doubtful the OP is anywhere near their genetic potential on ~6 hours week. Hitting 3.8w/kg on only 6 hours week at 49 is great (and would make me optimistic about getting to 4.5w/kg with some years at higher volume), but the only way to determine what is possible is to do the work. Everyone is different. Some people get gains quick, but have low ceiling, some get gains very slowly but have much higher ceiling/potential. Time/age isn’t on our side when we get into our 40’s, but most amateurs have so much head room that there is still a ton of room to improve.
I didn’t get over 4w/kg until I was in my 50’s when life calmed down a bit with kids and work. And then I was lucky enough to retire in my mid 50’s and ramped the volume even higher. I only train during my ~6-7 month race season (fun riding the rest of the year), but I am pretty hard core during the season. My FTP hasn’t gone up too much and my short punchy power is lower than what it was in my 40’s, but I’ve gotten stronger and improved my race results every year since I turned 50. My power at 3,4,5+ hours keeps going up as the volume has increased. I was pushing into my limits on recovery last year getting up to ~25 hour /1200 TSS weeks during the height of build, so I think my fitness/power might have peaked last year at 56 (for how much I’m wanting to train and push myself). This year, power (and volume) is down just a bit, but I’ve been really working on my nutrition and body composition. I’m as lean and light as I’ve been since college and I think I’m on track to hit 4.3w/kg for the first time in my life (and I’d be on track for 4.5w/kg if I believed my current AIFTP estimate).
And despite the high volume approach I’ve been doing for years, I don’t fool myself into thinking I’m actually at my genetic limit. I could train more months of the year. I could skip all the other activities I enjoy and just train for cycling. But just like most of us who aren’t getting paid to ride our bikes, we have to find a balance that works.
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Lot of good answers here……I will be the guy to give you the straight talk.
You may have peaked at what you can do on 4-5 hours per week. But truly peaked for your physical capabilities? That is a very strong, hard, not even questionable NO.
Exercising 4-5 hours a week is nothing to sniff at for a normal human with a job, family, other interests, etc. For someone trying to find their limits in cycling, it is barely even trying.
Start adding volume, keep the structure. Keep at it year round with a reasonable off season break (not 3 months). Do that for the next few years and I bet you find much higher levels. How high? That I can’t say. But your numbers are good now on low training, so the odds are good you could do 4.5. You will likely find some point where the law of diminishing returns will really start to show, my totally swag is that is probably 12ish hours for most people. But again, that still doesn’t mean you are at your peak, just means it will take a lot more to find out where that is.
Is this the right thing for you? Only you can answer that.
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So I think I’ve maxed out the amount of time I can spend training (young kids, full time job, house renovation, beer). So on that basis my FTP increases will be minimal. Once my kids are older I’ll ramp up to the 12hrs per week and hopefully see some bigger gains.
I assume doing more intense workouts within my 7hrs of training would be counter productive? (I currently have 3 days of hard intervals).
It’s hard to know whether the weight fluctuations are water retention / fat or just naturally daily variation.
Probably. That’s one reason why I suggested doing something different. If you can’t do more, try novel.
So if you’ve done lots of steady SS, lots of over/unders and lots of 30/15s for your VO2 Max work, maybe choose a discipline like crits or cyclocross, and you’ll maybe get hard starts and anaerobic 30/30s - and you can always change the VO2s to intervals on a workout by workout basis.