New to TR having used TP for a while. Loved the idea of the adaptive training approach and FTP detection. My predicted FTP by April 16 has slipped from 246 to 241 over the last couple of weeks even though I think I’ve completed all the prescribed workouts and generally been holding the power targets during intervals on the higher end of the range. Is there a way to gauge workout compliance beyond TSS and IF or to understand why this is trending down?
Thanks
If you go into your TR account settings and set it to Public, soneone can take a look …
… or you could post screenshots of your calendar - last 4 weeks and next 4 weeks.
It can go down for a number of reasons. First and foremost it can go down because of your performance during the workout, or your post workout survey. Rate something Very Hard or All Out (especially when it projected Easy or Moderate), and it’s very likely going to bring your next workouts down to make sure it doesn’t overcook you.
Next up is not doing the prescribed rides. This can be something as simple as skipping a workout, but also includes things like going harder/longer on a planned group ride, and it can also be something like substituting the prescribed ride with an alternate ride.
The last one I’ll mention is that there’s a known bug by TR right now that if you do a lot of rides outdoors, the predictive FTP will always overestimate at first, and then always come down, even if you did everything perfectly. So if you have planned outdoor rides in your schedule, this might be your main issue.
There are more reasons predictions can drop too, the above are probably the most common.
Just made it public If anyone has any thoughts.
Thanks for the inputs. I do all my workouts outside which may then account for a lot of this. I have done a couple of group rides instead of the prescribed weekend zone 2 so definitely went over the power targets on those rides which might be adding to the problem. Otherwise I would think my interval session are pretty close to plan and I’m grading the workouts in line with the expectation. Easy rides are feeling easy and ditto for hard rides.
You’ve only been following your plan for a couple weeks and prior to that you did a lot of skiing. Your predicted FTP in 2 weeks is up a whopping 8%. Take the win!
Yeah, fair comment and acknowledge my time on the plan is limited. It was more the series of drops in my predicted FTP that I wanted to understand and to know if I’m doing something wrong. Appreciate you taking the time to review.
At least for me, the steady drops are the norm. It starts with a very optimistic prediction, and then drops over time to the final result. I’m not saying that feels good, but it is totally normal as it dials in the final number. I’ve been at this for many years and my age is getting up there, so my ‘newb gains’ are long behind me. I’m happy if I see +1-2 watts when I reach the end of the window. Just sharing so you don’t feel like you’re the only one who experiences this.
Hey @xke68 
Welcome to TR!
We’ve identified an issue with how our model projects planned outside workouts. Edited to correct: This isn’t a model issue but rather a bug in projections. The model is working as it should. If the entire plan is set up as outside workouts, this affects your predictions more than most.
Our team has a fix ready for this that will go out alongside some broader model improvements, so predictions for outdoor plans should be more accurate from the start going forward.
+1 on what @Pbase mentioned about your skiing period Let’s see what the AI FTP Detection comes out to on detection date. But it looks like if you keep following the plan, you should see gains!
Will we get a Nate podcast with the new model release? What we should expect to see differently, etc.
Thanks for confirming the outdoor vs indoor issue. It does however beg the question that if you follow a structured plan outside are you coming up short on the plan and hence potential gains? If you were to execute the prescribed rides exactly per plan, how would the app even know or care whether you were inside or outside? I’m mostly curious on this and just wanting to gain insight into how this all works.
I too am an ‘outdoor trainer’ only and have seen the same issues with riding outside to perform the workouts. TR team answered my questions pretty quickly which was pretty assuring, so im pretty eager to see the new release updates too. my initial question for my post was about pre and post rides around the actual prescribed workout but similar to you, I was seeing my Ai Prediction plummet from it’s original detection.
Hey all, adding some more info/perspective on this:
I want to clarify that the model behind TrainerRoad AI is functioning as intended. There isn’t a bug or problem in how the AI portion of TrainerRoad AI is working. There are a lot of additional, non-AI parts to this puzzle that we have in place in order to allow the model to make your training better, and this is just an example of an issue with one of those.
Most athletes are able to do more power outside than inside, and I want to be clear that this is representing my perception, but I think the model can recognize that. So solving this one for athletes like @xke68 @Photovongsa and myself who strictly train outside (a small minority of athletes, but we still hear ya!) is a bit tricky.
That said, we’re working on solving this in the best way possible, and it’s the #1 priority for the company right now.
Like mentioned here, most cases (if not all?) seem to be a situation where the end result is within 5-10w, and it’s crucial to remember that TrainerRoad AI is still going to be able to give you appropriate workouts, whereas with older or other training systems, that 5-10w delta might actually compromise your training.
So as an athlete that trains almost exclusively outside when weather permits, my suggestion would be to not sweat it and instead focus on executing workouts with consistency. Performance will improve!
If you are seeing a bigger delta than 1-10w, or you feel this is causing excessively easy/hard workouts for you, can you please share your username so we can look into your scenario specifically. That will be a huge help for us.
Last point, yes, Nate will share updates on the podcast next time he is on
I’m not sure I’ve seen TR say this specifically before, although I may be wrong. Really pleased to see it.
We’ve always said that. At some point I assume somebody here on the forum (?) mistook the following points as a belief by our company:
So we encourage athletes to optimize their environment to shrink that delta, but we have never stated we don’t believe there is a delta.
At this point I’m not sure exactly who it will help and how, but the intent is always to constantly improve TR, and in this specific case we want to improve how it handles outside data.
My predicted FTP dropped this morning after I did a 3100 m swim.
It advised an endurance ride tomorrow (now considered a yellow day) instead of the prescribed SS workout…which I can totally handle tomorrow.
It doesn’t let me replace the endurance workout with the pre prescribed SS workout, so I’m just going to manually load the SS workout tomorrow, and complete it.
We shall see if the Ai blow up, haha.
@Jonathan It is confusing and kinda frustrating to see my projected ftp slip when I think I’m completing the prescribed workouts per plan. Two days ago I had an overnight drop in my projected mid April ftp from 241W to 233W (-8W) after completing a VO2 session where I was at or above the targeted power levels. In general the workouts seem well suited to me and I’m not failing or killing myself to hit the targets. “Hard” feels hard and ditto for “Easy”. Is there a way to gauge workout compliance as TR is measuring them? What can drive a one day 8W drop in a projected ftp 9 days from now?
I’d suggest editing your post to include something like “My profile is public and I am ok with you sharing what you find here” so you don’t have to wait for one of the TR folks to ask.
There is a setting in Account → Settings to display Red/Yellow days, but not have the workouts adjust.
Firstly, I agree that’s how it feels for me too.
Second point though we exist in a probabilistic universe.
When I do Cloudripper -3, the benefit I gain is not predetermined and known, it is the likely outcome, but not a certainty.
Its also affected by the 15 preceding workouts, my nutrition, sleep, training history and genetic potential - and whether I go on a bender afterwards.