Hey there! Welcome to the TR community!
I checked out your TR Calendar and I think I have an idea of what’s up here.
AI FTP Detection
It looks like you’ve generally done a good job staying consistent with your plan so far, but it does seem like you only did one 30-minute outdoor ride (without power) last week. That missing week of training probably impacted your most recent AI FTP Detection.
I also noticed that your outside rides don’t have power data (at least your recent rides). AI FTP Detection does take HRM data into account (if it’s available from the athlete) to make FTP Detections, but power is definitely the gold standard that will get you more accurate readings. The more power data AI FTP Detection gets, the more accurate it will be.
AI FTP Detection doesn’t need capacitive efforts or any particular workout to work well, but it does need power data to function as accurately as possible. Since it looks like a lot of your rides are missing power data, it may be a good idea to do a Ramp Test to see where you’re at.
And yes, the FTP value from AI FTP Detection is that grey area between the power you can sustain for a very long duration (typically about an hour) and the fleeting power you can only tolerate for a couple of minutes.
Power vs. Heart Rate
We generally advise prioritizing power over heart rate when training. HR can fluctuate for a variety of reasons, which can lead to inconsistent training if using HR alone. Power is typically more stable day-to-day and is especially more useful when performing shorter intervals (like the short threshold efforts found in Hobson). The longest interval in that workout is 4 minutes at 103% FTP, which may not be enough time for your HR to drift fully up into your threshold range. If your power at threshold feels like you’re working hard but able to sustain the effort, then you should be on the right track.
All that said, Adaptive Training will get you dialed in as you work through your plan. Make sure to fill out your Post-Workout Surveys, which AT will use to accelerate or slow your progression through your plan to lock you into appropriate workouts for your current fitness levels. It looks like you’re at Workout Levels 1-2 for all of your zones but Endurance, so you’ve got plenty of room to grow those up! As your Progression Levels increase, your workouts will become more difficult, reflecting your changes in fitness.
For your outdoor training, we’d recommend following along to your TR sessions using Outside Workouts. TR workouts done using Outside Workouts will affect your Progression Levels just as your indoor trainer sessions would.
Unstructured rides/races don’t impact your Progression Levels at this moment (they will in the future!), so we’d advise simply enjoying your unstructured rides without overthinking them too much. If they’re intense/hard, then we’d recommend replacing that ride with one of your intense workouts for the week so you don’t build up too much intensity.
I think your idea of doing 2 hard sessions with TR and saving the rest of your week for outside riding as the weather allows is a great starting point! If you’re able to get a power meter back on your bike for outdoor riding, AI FTP Detection will use that power data too, which means the work you put in on those unstructured rides will indeed impact your future AI FTP Detections.
Hope this helps! Feel free to let me know if you have any other questions.