Think I’ve hit this bug today, prediction has been consistent at 281W the entire block but I did my last workout Redondo+1 today and now it says no change tomorrow. Frustrating as I’ve been hitting various all-time power records over the last 3 weeks on most non-Z2 rides. All outside rides this block as the UK weather has been cooperative.
Annoyingly I’m not going to be particularly consistent for the next couple of months due to holidays etc but I’d hoped that fewer workouts at a higher intensity would mean I don’t lose fitness as quickly.
Most others seem to be reporting a gradual decrease throughout the window but I haven’t seen that, or where after doing a workout it decreased by a watt or 2 the AI has then changed the scheduled workouts to bring it up again.
I see this posted a lot but if the workouts are appropriately chosen and the workout player jives with you is a prediction really a deal breaker? Where would you go?
I personally have turned off the AI FTP message and have skipped it for the last two rounds. Why, because I can tell when things are too easy or too hard, and when I feel an authentic improvement, I will then accept the suggested change and then keep going. Keeping it turned off has been the best thing for my training morale. Being reminded of a number to chase each time I opened TR was not ideal, especially when doing everything correctly, and that number doesn’t follow through with its prediction. This is coming from someone who’s used TR for 5+ years. Perhaps 6 months from now, I’ll change my strategy, but so far, this works well for me.
Did the detection and got a limited data warning despite all rides having power + HR.
After reading more about it am I right in thinking that the workouts will continue getting harder and TR is using raw W rather than the FTP value to set the power targets during workouts?
Yes, we use your recent power curve to prescribe workouts. Your FTP can have some effect if it’s significantly different, though. And the level of workouts we give you can be driven by that, but the workouts should fall within your power curve either way.
It looks like things are working for you now.. How are things going?
Totally fair question. For me, it’s been that FTP drops below the previous month number, so I end up repeating workouts and not feeling like I’m progressing.
@eddie
What’s the status on the bugfix for this issue (outside rides don’t give accurate AI FTP prediction)?
I just finished 6 weeks of a new plan that I’d created since starting this thread.
Again, at the start of the plan I was predicted to go from 194FTP to 207 in 6 weeks.
Yesterday was my final ride before the detection.
I nailed ALL the intervals and rated the ride as Moderate and my FTP prediction went from 202 to 197. WTF? Why would it go down when I completed the ride as predicted and rated it moderate?!?!? That makes NO sense.
As it was it had already decreased from a predicted 207 to 202 by the end of 6 weeks.
This just doesn’t make sense!
3 watts over 6 weeks when I’ve been absolutely busting my butt and hitting EVERY interval either as expected or even higher than expected.
Ridiculous!
welcome to the club! I feel your pain. If it was an easy fix they would have a solution by now. Thank God for Eddie ,who seems to be the only knowledgeable one at the TR support ,giving you the correct and useful response . BTW if you post a response/question like yours above on the TR Instagram page you will get banned /blocked by them. Just like me
It would be great if you could help me understand what is currently going on in my calendar (which is public and you can very well share any insight here on the forum).
Currently, I am at a WL 4.5 at SweetSpot. For tomorrow it is recommending me a 4.4 Sweetspot, that looks very achievable (I’m doing it outside, inside I would just melt on the trainer…thanks heatwave).
FTP prediction 277
Well aware of the bug with outside workouts being prescribed too easy, I decided to swap for Antelope that should be a SS 5.0. It looks achievable as well and good bang for the buck.
If I swap, the AIFTP instantly drops to 265…wtf
I wouldn’t focus on levels. We don’t use them in the way we used to.
It looks like Antelope is just hard enough that it’s currently “Not Recommended” for you. Putting that on your calendar for tomorrow likely affects the following training enough to drop your prediction.
If you think Antelope is a good workout for you, give it a shot. If you pass and it felt appropriate, your prediction could go back up.
The guidance here is to help get you the best workout – it isn’t a tactic to adjust the prediction values.
I’d also advocate against adopting the stance of trying to prove AI wrong or prove it correct. I think athletes get the best results when they just focus on hitting their workouts with precision rather than focusing on the FTP figure.
Putting a hard workout that isn’t recommended could drop your prediction as it likely will affect the rest of your training between now and your next prediction if things don’t go well.
Your performance during that workout will make the final decision on how your training should look afterward, though.
