I believe Ganna is the only cyclist rn who can beat Campenaerts at sea level. Victor went 500m further than Brad Wiggins did, and Brad did 440W at sea level. I don‘t see anyone else having that kind of engine.
That 440W figure is widely quoted, but I can’t find any original source for it.
There’s some analysis here by Dan Bigham suggesting that Wiggins’ distance could conceivably be achieved with power closer to 400W - but air density on the day will be a big factor.
Note that it’s referencing Wiggins’ record (not Campanaerts) because it was written in 2016 - so references to ‘a second hour record attempt’ aren’t referring to this latest one … but the analysis is still valid.
Manchester in winter doesn’t sound favourable.
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OT I watched this the other night 
Good luck Alex
Alex isn’t married?
This ain’t rocket surgery we’re talking about here…BBS is convenient, but anybody with half of a brain and some Excel skills could whip up a spreadsheet that would give an equivalent target.
IOW, Dowsett ain’t going 1 meter extra just because of how the numbers are crunched. The maths just aren’t that hard.
Brad has said a few times, when asked, that he produced 440 watts for the hour record.
Air pressure will be a major issue, as others have said. It would be better if he had a few days leeway on attempting the record so he could choose the day with the best conditions. When Wiggins broke the record the air pressure was unusually high - I think I remember seeing a load of calculations showing that with even average air pressure conditions for London he would have gone at least 400metres further, and with reasonably standard range low pressure (for London) that could have been 700 or more metres further than he actually achieved). Manchester velodrome tends to have lower air pressure than London, but its still hugely variable.
It’s also interesting to see how Dowsett’s TT position has changed since completing the hour record. His position now looks much more compact and, I’m assuming, aero (take a look at relative head positions between hour record and giro TTs). If this can be maintained for the hour record then that will be a substantial boost.
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yeah, he mentioned in his YouTube that they’d tried to pitch for a 1 week window but the UCI wouldn’t allow it - they need to commit to a specific day apparently, which seems harsh.
I still need to watch the vid.
I guess that if UCI officials have to be present to provide accreditation it is probably reasonable for them to state a single day…
Maybe we can get a few people going for it! Proper track arms race.
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If the Europeans are not allowed to travel, I really don‘t see anyone but Ganna to break it. With all due respect to Campenaerts, he is not a better time trialist than Brad Wiggins. The benefits of altitude are just massive.
On a good day, Ganna should be able to break 56k… maybe even 35miles…
Just my guess.
Confirmed at ISN then, dont think that is a surprise.
Re: Manchester, I think thats going to be a sizeable disadvantage.
Now its official - Alex is staying with Israel Startup, which is a team that really seems to suit him.
But means he’ll be riding the hour on a Factor, so 2 possibilities, TT bike altered to remove mech hangers, mechs etc…, or Factor supplying a pure track bike (He did mention a while ago he was speaking to the owners of Factor regards to alterations to his TT bike?!), as Canyon did.
Can he do this - imo of course he can, even Brad thinks he can do it (he did actually beat Brad in the Giro TT in 2013)… Surprised its not in London as it is considered a faster velodrome than Manchester, but could be down to expected Air pressure
you beat me! 
Or he‘ll just go on an unsponsored bike, like he did in the nationals (Shiv TT, with Roval 321 rear wheel and Revolver front wheel):
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Would tie in with all the work he’s done recently with the wind tunnel.
Hes got no chance in the uk in wintertime.
He has to do it quickly before Ganna does it and puts it out of sight!!
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