AI Training - Will it work?

FTP = power you can hold between 30 - 70 min in a rested state coming in. It is both physiological and psychological. That’s where the “functional” part is key.

30 - 70 min is maybe a little loose, but I’m confident on two things:

  1. a nontrivial number of TR users, and cyclists in general, cannot hold their ramp test result power for 30 min in a semi-rested state.

  2. the difference in the power a person can hold for 30 min is pretty close to what one can hold for 45 to 60 min. It is the motivation part that gets hard the longer you go.

Would I rather do a ramp test or 30 min all out effort to set training levels? Ramp test all the way. But it doesn’t do me any good if I jump into too hard a threshold workout because I misunderstand what the score on ramp actually means.

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An age-old discussion, but I haven’t heard any TR statements that their workouts are indexed against your 30-70 min power. Their workouts are indexed against a Ramp Test result. Because Ramp Test results are just a future workout index, it is irrelevant whether or not it is your actual hour-power.

I agree that calling it something other than FTP would be nice to avoid this entire confusion.


I agree on all that.

It isn’t important that they index against 30-70 min power. It is important that they hit the right workouts at the right time in the least confusing way possible. A really really hard thing to do, and I am confident they are on the path to do it the best way possible.

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Is this something AI will advise you? I doubt it…
For me it’s still fishing in the same pond but I can be wrong.

I guess we will see. My thinking is that in time the ML working on an ever expanding data set will be able to answer questions such as this. By looking at the training athletes have completed and their results over time, should provide some real insights into whether polarised, pyramidal or a SS only plan are best for a given athlete based on their history and current levels. So advising on overall volume progression as well as balance of intensity. I am not expecting this from day 1, far from it, but think it will come over the next few years.

For now, the use of AT to tailor workouts for specific energy level progressions will be a real step forward in itself.

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I asked this in the other big thread. Nate responded, but didn’t quite confirm that AT will be able to provide guidance on the best training intensity distribution for an athlete.

Original question + response.

Follow up question.

IMO, getting the right TID is more important than tweaking intensity of individual workouts.

They can’t do that because 90%+ of the data they have is the SS workouts ppl use TR for.

In other words, the adapting plans will look pretty much the same as the current offering, with little tweeks here an there mostly at the workout level…they have no data for the system to recommend anything different.

They do have data (a lot of it) on people who don’t follow TR plans. So it’s not like everyone in the database just does SS plans.

I think the bigger challenge is that its very hard to do. A lot more so than just tweaking intensity up or down.

The biggest issue in my view is the timescale over which to measure and optimize. For TID, you’re talking training blocks or even seasons. It’s not as simple as “easy pass on workout 1” = “make workout 2 harder”.

Edit: I don’t mean to imply that the AT algorithm is this simple, and I’m not diminishing TRs accomplishment with the AT program as it’s been described (I think it’s really cool, and deserves status as a BHAG), but optimizing TID is a much bigger challenge.

They also said last week that they would be introducing a polarised plan (more detail in today’s AACC) and LV+ and MV+ plans. All of these will start to produce useful data, as well as that from those following their own polarised plans using TR workouts.

TID is backwards facing, and shouldn’t really be forwards facing, IMO.

Trying to target TID is teaching to the test rather than focusing on physiological limiters.

Sequencing makes a huge different here; two identical riders can have the exact same TID with radically different sequencing and they’ll have wildly different results.

This is a lot of why the whole “train polarized” thing breaks down for most people.


Agree. Sequencing of TID is also very important.

I’m using TID as shorthand for macro training zones and sequencing/timing.

Point being, when AT can also recommend the right training plan and phases based on athlete profile and goals, that’s the holy grail.

Using a example.

  • let’s say I’m struggling with a threshold workout.
  • one answer is reduce the intensity and do an easier version
  • another answer is don’t do a threshold workout and do a long endurance ride instead
  • and extending this logic, make recommendations that change macro training intensities and sequencing, not just tweak workouts up or down.

Agree that in a “full” implementation of the AT concept to its maximum extent, this should be the case.

But the way most plans work (including TR) is that the TID of the plan is forward facing. Here’s the workouts you’ll be doing, and here’s the zones they fall into.

Sorry, TID? Not an acronym I know.

Won’t it exactly do that? I mean by analyzing ones progress they should be able to balance intensity and volume. As a result we should see all TIDs possible spread across the user base.

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Training Intensity Distribution

Thanks, thought it must be something like that.

I’m not in the beta, and don’t have direct experience, so can only go based on my interpretation of the podcast and what I’ve read.

My understanding is that you pick a plan. And AT will adjust the intensity of the different workouts in that plan. But not make wholesale changes to the TID vs what’s already in the plan.

I’m open to being corrected if I’ve misinterpreted.

I don’t think you got it all wrong. Though I would assume that by either nailing or failing you should see some tweaks which move the TID. Obviously, that won’t make a THR TID a POL TID but it should allow for a shift to PYR. And vice versa for those on a POL plan. Hopefully, also the levels play a role in that shift in either direction.

Maybe we’ll get some official clarification from the TR crew on this :grin:

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The education would likely be hundreds of thousands if not millions.

I’m hoping that the people here in the forum can connect the ramp test + progression logic.

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