Just to give you another perspective that was not mentioned here before:
I also think that gaining that much is unlikely but we have to keep in mind that TR AI FTP it’s based around performing a threshold 3 workout… I think of 3×9 minutes intervals.
So if you are high glycolytic athlete (for example, the kind of athlete that get an overestimated FTP based on 95% of 20 minute test and should better use 90 to 92%) and have your strength and power duration curve at 5 to 15 minutes … the gains here could be a bit faster and a bit higher and that could explain or drive the TR AI FTP value because it would see that you can perform very good at those durations and intervals.
And then the confusion comes because we mix up the TR FTP with 60 minute prediction. But the good thing is that TR prescribes based on your power curve.
The only problem with the TR AI FTP value could be that if you are a super glycolytic athlete and really, really strong in those 10 minutes intervals, you may drive the AI FTP value so high that there is a problem with the threshold floor (95%) or sweet spot floor (88%) when TR prescribes you threshold workout or sweet spot workout with longer intervals. But I’m not sure about that.
Would like to hear @Nate_Pearson or @Jonathan if this theory has some truth to it.