AI FTP Prediction question - It felt disheartening to me

[huges84]

@Zizhao_He

But what’s predicted seems even crazier. AI now predicts a FTP boost from 292 to 313 for the next 4 weeks. That’s 21watts/7.2% which is something I have only seen in beginner gains (I have way passed that phase). With my weight at 68kg I would jump from 4.3 to 4.6 w/kg. The number just doesn’t seem real to me. AI could drop 2 watts of FTP for one missed workout, but then boosts 21 watts in 4weeks?

A big part of getting more fit is frequently giving your body proper recovery. It’s needed so that your body can build back stronger. If you never effectively recover then it just stays stressed and doesn’t improve nearly as much (or even regresses).

You’ve been neglecting recovery. The predicted FTP is based on you following the AI recommendations, including its management of your recovery. If you actually do recover, you will get faster.

FTP is not actually a measure of fitness. Is a measure of your ability to perform. If you’re always fatigued, then you will perform worse than you could perform when rested with the same fitness. So if you did not ride at all for a week, yes, it’s plausible your FTP after that would jump up significantly.

Whether or not the predicted increase is accurate, it’s clear you need some actual recovery. Take care of your body for a week and get those gains.

[Zizhao_He]

Thank you, Caro. I believe the new AI found me some really great workouts last few weeks making me stronger so I applied the b2b2b threshold workouts and completed them with no failure. I do love the new AI training, so much less failure than before. Just that the mechanism behind the fluctuating prediction is causing some anxiety in me.

For the weeks around the holidays, I admit those were crazy days filled with overtime, over-eating and vacations. I worried about not having enough training and tweaked the trainings and went into a loop hole of fatigue. It was also that I haven’t done any sweet spot workouts for a long time that yielded lots of the Z4 failed workouts. So glad the new AI saved me from it.

What do you think of the new AI prediction of 313 watts? That seems too high to be true IMO…how could I gain 7% in just 4 weeks.

[kevistraining]

Part of what I think is happening is we are all so used to using FTP as a measure but the FTP we see in TR now is not a direct measure - it is the setting that the system thinks will give the most effective training.

So while yes, it is unlikely that actual fitness would change that much in that time, the method to give the most effective training could.

[LacticacidMCB]

@kevistraining

So while yes, it is unlikely that actual fitness would change that much in that time, the method to give the most effective training could.

This feels true. And if so I think it is the clearest message that TR could use to explain much of the recent changes.