AI-FTP prediction / FTP drop because of too much TSS?

Training
1

Hi everyone!

Could you please take a look at my training calendar?
I’ve set my calendar to public.
I´m actually training for some long marathon races (7h+).

I’m referring to the last training block (comming from build-phase to base phase).
I’ve already contacted customer support, but only received a generic response.

Even though I’m adhering to every interval and entering the RPE correctly based on how I feel, my AI-FTP prediction steadily decreases from, for example, a predicted 286W to eventually the current starting FTP value (275W).
In this block, after the last long base ride, my “actual” FTP calculation even dropped by 6W from 275W to 269W.

How is it possible for my calculated FTP (AI FTP Detection) to decrease after 4 weeks of interval training?

It’s noticeable that whenever my workouts exceed the allotted time, it negatively impacts the AI-FTP prediction.

Since I do all my workouts outdoors, and I have a long commute to my training spots (the hills), I almost never manage to stay within the allotted time.

However, I always travel at a low base intensity on the way to and from the hills, which still affects the TSS.

Thanks in advance.

Best regards, Bernhard

2

Let me preface this by saying I’m answering the question “why would the TR AI downgrade my FTP”. I’m not suggesting what you’re doing is bad or anything. Just thinking about what the AI is reacting too.

Firstly, you very frequently overshoot your planned TSS, often by a lot. Sometimes almost double. Is that leading to an endless cycle of the AI downgrading the subsequent workouts? Are your workouts ending with approximately the same TSS and IF as the workout planned for? I think you’d be better off rebuilding a more realistic plan and getting the AI to give you something that is structured more like what you really do. If your plan is giving you an hour at .65 IF and then you do 3 hours at .65 or do an hour at .75 or whatever, and if it assigns 275 TSS for the week and then you do 525 TSS it’s not going to see you as following the plan and it’s going to try to modify to get you back on track. I’m not saying all the additional riding isn’t beneficial to you, just that something rating your performance vs. plan is going to see you as extremely non-compliant.

Also, there is a known bug around outdoor workouts that is certainly going to be impacting someone who does all of their work outdoors.

eddie 3

Welcome to the forum! :partying_face:

I’m taking a look at your calendar now, as well as your two recent support tickets.

Can I share the details I find in this thread?

4

Hello!

Of course :blush:

BR
Bernhard

eddie 5

It looks like you’ve been pretty consistent with your training recently, which is great!

You’ve been hitting all three hard workouts each week, and last week was a pretty good example of how to balance the work well in a way that’s productive long term.

Looking back a week prior, though, you put your hard workouts in pairs and did each of them back-to-back, which will likely not bring the best results. I’d definitely try to keep an easy day between hard workouts if you can.

Your default schedule of hard on Monday, easy on Tuesday, hard on Wednesday, hard on Friday, endurance on Saturday is definitely a good way to go. That ensures that you’ll be rested and ready to perform well for those key sessions.

I do see some red and quite a bit of yellow on your calendar that you typically seem to ride through. This is probably due to your back-to-back rides and the fact that you push out the duration of your workouts a little longer than they’re prescribed.

You’re not doing anything wrong by commuting to your training spots, but keep in mind that all the extra riding does add up at the end of the week and needs to be accounted for.

Moving forward, I think you’ll see the best results if you keep your training arranged in a way that facilitates recovery and quality work.

How are your workouts feeling? I’ve noticed that you’re hovering in the level 2-3 range for threshold workouts. Are those challenging enough without pushing you too far to your limits?

I do want to mention that @Pbase is right about the fact that there is a bug that we’re currently working on where FTP Predictions are initially really high but then drop over time when athletes do their workouts outside.

This is the company’s top priority at the moment, and we’re doing all we can to get this sorted out, so hang in there!

Let me know your thoughts

2 Likes
6

I could not agree with this more. I’ve already given up on “Predicted FTP” because the exact same thing played out two 28 day cycles in a row- starts with significant predicted increase in FTP, then in the last week (and especially last couple days), predicted FTP plummets back towards previous FTP. Something clearly amiss but customer support only gave “non-answers”. So I turned “Predicted FTP” off as useless & frustration-inducing

Then “chapter 2” of problems since the release of the new AI. Now it’s decreasing my “Detected FTP” despite every scintilla of evidence to the contrary- CTL way up, completed almost every hard structured workout successfully & marked accordingly, speed & felt power on the bike significantly better (I’ve been doing structured intervals for 10yrs btw), etc. I am ramping up weekly TSS/CTL for hard goal recent & upcoming events like the OP, have some outdoor rides longer like the OP, and all I can guess is that the new AI is penalizing me for that (or something else is broken in the new system, at least for my age/situation…)

Bottom line, if someone won’t provide an adequate fix/explanation, I’m leaving the platform

Note: Nate/Jonathan went to great lengths in the podcasts “explaining” why we shouldn’t focus on FTP as a measuring stick in the new AI system. But IMO that’s unrealistic, it’s an important gauge of progress many of us have been using for a long time & will continue to do so. And- if you listen to Jonathan’s podcast about progress training for Leadville, he himself constantly refers to FTP progression as his measuring stick!

7

your AI FTP can drop when overall fatigue is high. If your total TSS is consistently above plan like from extra riding to/from hills, the system may interpret that as reduced performance capacity rather than fitness gain.

Also, base phases + long endurance rides don’t always push FTP up immediately—they can even lower short-term estimates.

You might try keeping a few workouts strictly within the planned duration or adding more recovery, and see if the trend stabilizes.

8

Hello!

Thank you for your response.

You’re right.

The threshold sessions on Friday could definitely be a bit harder for me.

How can I influence them?

Maybe by setting the RPE value to very low?

BR

Bernhard

9

I always recommend answering the RPE survey based on how the workout actually felt. It’s never a good idea to manipulate your answer with the intention of swaying the outcome of future workouts.

If you’re certain that you’d like to take on a harder workout, I’d first try using Workout Alternates and selecting something from the “Harder” section.

That might help things get into the right direction.

Let me know your thoughts and what you find..