All month long the projected ftp was improving. As of Wednesday it projected 245. However, I had a big event today, and I had developed some saddle sores, so I skipped my rides Tuesday through today, which was my FTP day and a 90mile 8000’ fondo. AI FTP says my ftp droppped a point from 231 to 230. This is just wrong, I’m much stronger now than a month ago.
Did skipping 3 rides due to saddle sores confuse the AI?
Hey there,
I think there is more to this one than skipping those few rides, though, that probably contributed to some extent.
I’m looking into this now and will follow up when I have something to share.
Hang in there!
Yeah that’s my sense. My guess is my performance on the fondo was lower wattage than expected. The heat was a major contributor and everyone was slower. But I had some serious back pain too. And it was the first long ride of the season. . . . Yeah excuses. But i don’t think those should impact FTP. Or if the prediction was accurate then the previous ones were far too high.
Was it a realistic number, your initial prediction?
Because for me for example. I try to increase FTP on TT bike. So I did a ramp test and had 249FTP. I have a 266W prediction within 20 days? 20W improvement in one month is just not realistic (maybe they use my road bike power from previous months as a guideline).
So I know this prediction will become lower when I reach the ai ftp prediction date.
I think there is more going on here than just your power during that one ride. I’m waiting for some extra eyes on this one, but I’ll follow up as soon as I can.
I don’t know if the absolute value of the numbers is ever accurate, are really who cares. But I’m highly confident in the direction of my training. I feel, and Strava agrees, that I’m getting faster. So there was clearly some improvement.