TLDR; if I do an unstructured ride the day or two before my AI FTP date it drastically lowers my AI FTP. My AI FTP has gone down every month since it has been implemented.
30 days ago, AI FTP predicted a 6% increase. This is after it previously dropped my FTP from 270 to 248 in March following the 100 mile Home Grown Gravel race. I have done many structured training sessions; however, I have done unstructured difficult outdoor 60-70 mile rides.
Two days ago AI said my FTP would still be going up to about 260, then yesterday I did a hard 75 mile ride with 7000 feet of climbing and now it says my FTP dropped from 248 to 243. I feel stronger than I ever have, stronger than when TR said my FTP was 270 (the 270 was probably too high though), so the other day I did a 20 min ramp test and it came out. at 268. My zwift ramp tests have always been fairly close to my TR ftp.
Every time i do an unstructured outdoor ride too close to my TR AI FTP calculation day, it drops my FTP. TR is saying my FTP has dropped 27 watts since February and that is after many structured training sessions.
I understand m perceived FTP can be way off from my actual FTP, but I know my FTP is not 243 and the ramp tests bare this out. I can also notice this when I have my threshold and zone 2 workouts. My zone 2 last week was moderate at best. I consider myself a science and facts person, but in this case I just can’t believe the numbers.
The FTP of 243 is where I was at the middle of last season when I was 50 pounds heavier and only a few months in to my cycling journey, I know my fitness and FTP are miles beyond that person I was.
The new TRAIFTP is a number that TR uses to set your training where a TH 3.0 ride will be rated “Hard”. For some of us, that number will be near what we traditionally considered to be our FTP (however we personally defined or measured it). For some, it will not. TR have very clearly stated that the new TRAIFTP is NOT meant to be a Ramp Test prediction.
My issue is, if I ride my bike outside the day before AI FTP prediction, it has consistently lowered the AI FTP value by a significant amount from just one day day prior to the outdoor ride.
I understand that the day the number is calculated, which is today, my TR AI FTP may very well be 243 because my legs are cooked from that hard ride; however, in two or three days when I am more recovered that value will be much higher there by affecting my structured training and making it too easy.
I believe this to be a bug and something I have noticed since the latest update.
I think you will find that there are several threads in this forum talking about AINFTP (AI Not FTP) droping just before the detection day, I don’t think it’s limited to outside rides, as far as I can tell your FTP prediction will drop for any of the following reasons
You didn’t ride
You rode outside
You rode inside
You added extra rides and didn’t follow the plan
You followed the plan and didn’t do any extra rides
You had had friends and rode with them at the weekend
You didn’t have any friends to ride with at the weekend
You didn’t lift weights during the plan
You lifted weights during the plan and this scuppered your gains
If none of the above apply to you, it will be because sometimes following the plan, just doesn’t bring gains
I might try that. What’s frustrating is last week I did my scheduled VO2 and it felt too easy. After that workout my predicted FTP went to 268 ( predicted FTP had been hovering in the mid 260s, at the time it had my FTP at 248) then I do one hard unstructured outdoor ride and it drops to 243…within one week. Johnathan touts how smart the new TR is and I’m just not seeing it that way. At this point I’m probably just going to accept the prediction and turn up the percent intensity to match the discrepancy between TR and my tested FTP; I can’t do another month of easy threshold and VO2 training sessions.
I had the same experience. FTP prediction dropped 6% after skill a couple rides. I skipped them because 1)I was injured 2)tapering for a bit ride yesterday.