I was expected to have an AI FTP detection/change from 184 to 196 this morning. On Saturday I underperformed in my endurance ride by going 6 Watts under the prescribed amount because I misread it initially. It dropped my FTP prediction by two watts to 194. On Sunday I hit the prescribed TSS and intensity factor, hitting the wattage requirement more or less cycling outdoors on a flat road with headwinds. This morning I woke up and the AI prediction gave me 192. Can someone explain what is happening and what is the expectation here? Should it be dropping my FTP prediction like that with just 2 days left and unexpectedly change again the morning of?
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I haven’t an answer, I’m afraid, but mine has also fallen in the days leading up to the final predicted / change, despite hitting all the workouts and it being relatively stable before that. To not lose the gains ‘on paper’ made over the last month, I’ve taken to gaming the system in the last couple of days by playing with workouts to recover some of the lost watts.
By gaming the system, I mean pinning/unpinning workouts, adding/removing endurance workouts and playing with the intensity of the final threshold workout. I know the system’s supposed to be deterministic, but it’s not entirely IMO.
Once I get this FTP update I will let it do its thing, but it happening in the last days was too frustrating to leave it unaddressed.
I had a similar experience when gaming the system for a month by increasing endurance load to keep the number up, mostly in the secondhand of the 2w window. Looking back I believe the prediction is a bit vulnerable to this approach and it increases the possible difference between prediction and actual FTP recalculation result. When sticking to the plan a month later, the result was way closer to the prediction.
I don’t think ftp dropping in the final few days is unusual but its not always clear why.
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Not really, try not to worry about a few watts up or down.
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Hey @Songbird 
I can take a look at your account to see what’s going on. However, per our forum guidelines, can I get permission to share relevant information like screenshots of you Calendar?
If not, please can contact support@trainerroad.com and we can help ya out directly.
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You have my permission
Not worried about a few watts when it comes to fitness but I am curious what I am doing to trigger this and trying to understand how the AI FTP works in this situation.
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Thank you
OK, I took a look at your account and there is nothing really standing out…A two watt decrease is ever so minimal when we’re looking at percentages of FTP and it can still happen with 2 days lefts till your AI FTP Detection. A possible guess of why it could have gone down is because you were coming off a Recovery Week or the Endurance ride on Sunday (yellow day) just tipped you over in fatigue levels…
That said, I think the important part to point out is that you’re in an upwards trend with FTP increases:
181 January 20, 2026
186 February 16, 2026
192 March 16, 2026
Expected FTP April 13th, 2026: 204
Even if your FTP prediction was 2 watts lower, it is still higher than the last, but even more important is that the recommended workouts will be recommended based on your power data. If you’re rating your interval work as Hard, then you can rest assured that you’re getting served the right workouts to achieve performance adaptations regardless of a 2 watt difference.
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