Hi, Since I started using AI FTP detection, I’ve been noticing the following across three different estimations, starting from a previous FTP of 332: It always gives a very optimistic increase. Here’s today’s latest example. I do all my training outdoors, and I try to upload only the actual workout to TR (I usually ride ~15 extra minutes to get back home/work, but very easy, so I try not to include that). The FTP estimate gradually trends down over time, even if I mark workouts as “easy” or follow its suggested rating (moderate/hard). When the new detection day comes, FTP doesn’t change at all. For example, yesterday it showed an increase from 332 to 339. I did the workout (81 TSS vs 80 planned), and the estimate dropped back to 332. Today it’s still at 332W. At the same time, the future projection is SUPER optimistic — it says I’ll reach 373W in 28 days (which seems unrealistic). It’ll probably decrease over time to 332w again… [Screenshot_2026-03-19-10-30-56-578_com.trainerroad.android.production] [Screenshot_2026-03-19-07-40-28-490_com.trainerroad.android.production]

There isn’t really enough to go on here, worth considering sharing more as per guidelines. [image] Updated Forum Guidelines Announcements Hey all, We’ve made some recent changes to our forum guidelines around how we work through athlete cases in public threads. Below is what we’ve added, and also here’s a link to where this lives on our forum for reference. Posting About Your TrainerRoad Account From time to time, athletes post about their training plans, adaptations, or other aspects of their TrainerRoad experience. We love that! But context is everything. Without it, it’s really hard for anyone to give you a helpful answer, …

I guess I change my profile to public! Calendario - TrainerRoad

Hey @ignaciofope :slight_smile: Do I have permission to share Calendar info? I am seeing a few things that are a bit odd and may be the reason to the decreased FTPs. If not you can always contact support@trainerroad.com

Why are these problems only happening for people with ftp over 300? Like this is the zillionth thread with “my ftp was 330 now it’s 320”. Looking forward to how this one works out

In this case the trend of lower FTP also corresponded to a previously averaging 650 tss then a break then now averaging 438 tss. I think that may also be confounded by the bug that was mentioned where people who ride primarily outside get an artificially high FTP prediction.

Second daughter rules!! :rofl: At least im doing 450. Also, this year (and probably always) I dont worry too much about numbers (it’s been a while without races or gran fondos). I was just curious about this huge change and the absolutely nosense 373ftp. And also because I feel good and strong with this level of tss. I feel good in 3’/5’/10’ efforts and I dont plan rides longer than 3h/4h this year.

TrainerRoad

AI estimate decreasing after each workout

TrainerRoad Software

spinnnout March 19, 2026, 10:37am 2

There isn’t really enough to go on here, worth considering sharing more as per guidelines.

Topic		Replies	Views
FTP detections and AI predictions feel a bit erratic Results ftp-increase	6	350	April 9, 2026
Confused about AI FTP Prediction changing based on a single workout TrainerRoad Software	12	314	April 15, 2026
No increase in ftp. Wrong plan? Training choosing-a-plan	13	835	February 17, 2026
Predicted reduction in FTP by AI cowcj Training	16	627	July 14, 2026
Everytime i do a workout ftp goes down 😂 Training	11	1051	March 23, 2026

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AI estimate decreasing after each workout

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