Since I started using AI FTP detection, I’ve been noticing the following across three different estimations, starting from a previous FTP of 332:
It always gives a very optimistic increase. Here’s today’s latest example.
I do all my training outdoors, and I try to upload only the actual workout to TR (I usually ride ~15 extra minutes to get back home/work, but very easy, so I try not to include that).
The FTP estimate gradually trends down over time, even if I mark workouts as “easy” or follow its suggested rating (moderate/hard).
When the new detection day comes, FTP doesn’t change at all.
For example, yesterday it showed an increase from 332 to 339. I did the workout (81 TSS vs 80 planned), and the estimate dropped back to 332. Today it’s still at 332W.
At the same time, the future projection is SUPER optimistic — it says I’ll reach 373W in 28 days (which seems unrealistic). It’ll probably decrease over time to 332w again…
Why are these problems only happening for people with ftp over 300? Like this is the zillionth thread with “my ftp was 330 now it’s 320”. Looking forward to how this one works out
In this case the trend of lower FTP also corresponded to a previously averaging 650 tss then a break then now averaging 438 tss. I think that may also be confounded by the bug that was mentioned where people who ride primarily outside get an artificially high FTP prediction.
Also, this year (and probably always) I dont worry too much about numbers (it’s been a while without races or gran fondos). I was just curious about this huge change and the absolutely nosense 373ftp.
And also because I feel good and strong with this level of tss. I feel good in 3’/5’/10’ efforts and I dont plan rides longer than 3h/4h this year.
At least im doing 450.