For context here, I am 5’5, male, 23, and around 55-56kg. I could drop a tad in weight but I am pretty healthy at these numbers. Vo2 max is 62 according to my garmin watch.
I have never done “strict” structured training except some intervals in the spring. Most of mu riding was just hard with people stronger than me. My “entering spring” FTP is 265 (4.7w/kg) at Denver altitude. I just moved from DC to Denver and I am super motivated to get stronger. Would an increase in FTP to 300w be possible. I am pretty new to structured training.
I want to be an elite climber for RR and beat everyone back home
In all seriousness, with your age and newness to the sport, I wouldn’t focus on the raw watts but watts/kg. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if you hit 300 after following structure
My only question to you would be “why 300?”. What are your goals, and is your current ftp holding you back?
Nobody can answer that for sure until you do the training and find out. But given your age and lack of structured training in the past, there is a very good chance you could get to 300+. Particularly if you haven’t had much training/experience in other endurance sports (running, swimming, etc.).
Put in some work and see what happens, just don’t get fixated on the timeline. There are fast and slow responders, sometimes the slow responders have the highest genetic potential but it can take years to build it. Getting into structured training, you should get a significant bump over the first 6+ months and then the gains become slower after you’ve grabbed the easy stuff.
Ok I am already racing. Last year I had a 2nd place and a 4th place in 5 races I did. All cat 4. Not new to the sport. Been riding for like 6 years. Just haven’t done structured training.
Honestly my goal is to be able to hang with cat 1 riders or domestic pros (in their wheel at least).
Take your raw vo2 (56kg x 61 ml/kg/min) and multiply by 75. That’s probably close to your ceiling for FTP. The only way to raise significantly beyond that limit is increasing vo2 max. If you have low training volume and haven’t done much in the way of structured vo2 work, yea you could bump it 10%. If you are already training 20 hours a week, maybe not. Hope that helps!
If your lab measured vo2 max happens to be 70 instead of 61, yes 300 is very possible.
OK, you may not get any of those newbie gains then depending on what your training/riding has looked like. How many hours a week?
You might still see a decent bump if you can introduce some novel stimulus through more structured training, but you’ve likely grabbed a lot of the low hanging fruit if you’ve been riding and racing that long. But you are still young, most endurance athletes don’t peak until they are in their late 20’s or early 30’s. Again, nobody knows until you give it a shot. If your past training has been terrible, maybe you start training smarter and hit 300+ in 6 months. If your past training has been decent, you might still get to 300+ with better training, but could take many years.
Everyone has a genetic ceiling and very few ever get close to it. Lab testing things like v02max and efficiency can give some idea of potential, but the only real way to find out what you can do is to train and see how you respond. ~5.5w/kg is getting into rare air for an amateur, but they are certainly out there.
I started cycling in my 30s and got to a 20min max of 325w (308w FTP) at 64kg and 5ft 9.25in (4.9 w/kg). In your early 20s you’ll be able to get to better with work.
Definitely possible. The move should help your ambitions too.
Adding structure to your training will be a massive benefit and, if you can up the volume too, that will propel you higher, quicker.
Find a decent local racing club to join. There is more to moving up from Cat 4 to Cat 1 than a higher FTP. Learn racecraft, bike handling and efficiency.
Seriously. Don’t limit yourself by setting a target that might be too easy or too hard. Just get after it, do as many things right as you can, and come back here and let us know how it goes.
Sure. Take your vo2 max in L/min and multiply by 75. Or relative vo2 max x weight x 75.
For instance, Egan Bernal is reportedly 60 kg with a 91 vo2 max. 60x91=5,460. 5.46x75=409.5 It’s be reported that his ftp was just south of 400.
Tadej Pogacar is 66 kg with an 89.4 vo2 max (it could very well be higher now). 66x89.4=5,900.4. 5.90x75=442.5. I think his ftp is just a bit under that from most estimates.
A long time ago when I was training 7-8 hours / week my vo2 was 65.5 and I weighed 72 kg. 65.5x72=4,716 4.71x75=353.25 My FTP as tested in a lab was just under 355 at that time. I probably increased my ftp by 20 watts that next year but I’m also positive my vo2 max went up as well.
One of my riding buddies has just over 5 L/min, and his ftp is around 350 watts. However, 5.1x75=382.5. I suspect he has a lot of potential left, as he has only been seriously training for a year.
Based on that logic I’ve never got close to my ceiling despite many years with a lot of structure and high (15-25 hour) volume. I guess either the rule is broken, or I am
