Is a 75% increase in FTP achievable for someone new to structure?

How much of an increase in FTP did you see in your first year if structured training?

My goal is to hit 4.7w/kg by the end of the year, which would be a 75% increase, is this achievable?

Not sure anyone can honestly answer your question without a ton more info (if at all, really). But for perspective, have a look at some old data shared by Nate including w/kg info for men at a range of ages.

Regardless of age & training history, 4.7 w/kg is rare air that is held by very few. I’d be cautious about setting such a grand target without knowing more about you or why that is a particular goal.


Sounds quite aggressive. 4.7w/kg is at the pointy end of the amateur ranks. Cat 1 probably.

It’s better to have process goals. A number goal like that is difficult because there is no clear path on how to get there. There is no formula that says do this and you’ll get here.

If your FTP is 125, then yes, you could probably make it to 220 watts. But if you are currently at 250watts then getting to 438 watts is probably going to be next to impossible. Of course, nothing is impossible. We have a few stories of people going pro within a few years (Phil Gaimon, Kristin Faulkner).

Are you training? How much? What is your current FTP? Start training and in 6-12 weeks you’ll get pretty fit. There are lots of exercise phys studies that show you can get fit in a short amount of time. You’ll probably plateau and then have to ride a lot more and really dial in your training to get 5-10 watt gains here and there.


I’m currently at an FTP of 186 by the ramp test and 165W by WkO5. I have been extremely incinsistent with training the last few months and any I did do was unstructured.
Prior to that I hadn’t done any endurance training since early 2022. In 2022 I was running before and was just sub 90min in the half marathon after 3 months of endurance specific training. Prior to that I had been playing football/soccer. I had to give up running though.

Knowing nothing about you - my answer would be no.

Now, if you are a natural born endurance athlete…Maybe. How long did you train to do a 90 min half marathon? If you could do that say, off the coach and under 6 months, that would be a good sign. But I think your watts to kilo goal is even harder than a 90 minute half marathon. So factor that in.

I did that after 3months of endurance training. Prior to that I had a month fully off, and before that I had occasionally done short interval workouts (running) and played 5 a side football/soccer.

4.7wkg? That’s an oddly specific number.

I’m intrigued. How did you arrive at it?

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There is a specific race I have a long term goal to win. 4.7w/kg is the FTP of the previous winners, so it’s the ballpark I need to be in.

So, you have a long tern goal to win a specific bike race despite apparently having no cycling experience.

You see how that’s a bit … odd, right?

I mean, having big, hairy audacious goals is great, but you might be better served by having some smaller (mostly process) goals to act as stepping stones.


I wouldn’t call it odd no. And what exactly do you gain from insulting strangers on a forum?

Maybe? Nobody knows.

However if you roll out of bed, untrained, with 4W/kg fitness, it is a lot more likely. Especially if you dedicate a lot of time, say 12-15 hours/week.

Current weight in kg?


Depends. The average person is not capable of hitting 4.7 much less doing it so quickly. However if your genetics are good then you might hit that target in under a year and continue on upwards from there.

If you want to maximize your chances hire a good coach and focus on making sure you are eating well and sleeping as much as possible.


That was hardly and insult. Go try r/velo with your proposal if you want insults.

The bottom line is that if you have insane natural talent, then you can train some and win big races with little racing experience. You just over power the competition with watts especially if it ends on a climb.

99.99% of the rest of the population has to put in the hard work and consistent training year over year to get results.

Good luck!


That’s insulting? Really?

OK. I guess I’ll take myself off somewhere where for a while and have a good think.


Admittedly it’s not a big insult but calling having a big long term goal odd, is that really needed? Is it really true anyway? I’d have thought it was fairly common.

And mentioning r/velo, why? That place is a cesspit

Thanks for the sarcasm :+1:

FTP is far from the determining factor in races, it’s just one part of a larger fitness puzzle.

Have you done any racing already?

It’s great to have a big goal but I would break it down into process rather than outcome goals.


62kg x 4.7W/kg = 292W FTP

This is really good advice. Set the outcome goal but more importantly set the process goals that will help you get there. Only the latter is something you can control (mostly).

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