Stats:
56 yo Caucasian male, current weight 212 lbs (226 lbs in 2022), 6 ft 2, triple hernia surgery in January 2023 with a month bed recovery. Used to ride bikes 20 years ago, but never any structured training.
Started at 135 ftp from TR ramp test in late February 2023 (likely low FTP due to month bed rest from hernia recovery).
Beginning of structured training (TR) with indoor smart trainer and outdoor rides with PM and HRM. Low volume gravel plan, 3 hrs/week with some additional hours once outside. Rode 5 gravel events from 30 to 50 miles. Longest ride of year 62 miles.
AI FTP July 29: 212
Ramp test Aug 5: 246
Start of mid volume gravel plan 5+ hrs/week mid October after week off bike.
AI FTP Nov 21: 261
Ramp test Dec 13: 293
AI FTP Dec 19: 297
Currently in the master mid volume gravel plan (5 days m, 7 hrs a week with a sweet spot and threshold workout during the week. 3 other days zone 2 endurance, 2 days off bike.
January will start incorporating weight training 2x per week on the hard intensity days( morning ride, eve weights for 30 min).
My ramp tests always rate higher than AI FTP puts me at. Maybe I’m good at taking tests, or not answering the rides honestly? I don’t think it’s the latter.
So my goal is to go for 335 FTP by end February 2024. Might be out of reach but I’m motivated to do it. That would put me at a 200 watt increase in one calendar year. I realize it’s just a number but so is 1st place…
Great job… Congratulations!!
If you were being literal and you were put on bedrest for 1 month… your surgeon should be stripped of his or her medical license. Cheers
Mike
First off congratulations on your progress so far! 200W in two years is a big gain, and it’s as reasonable a point to set a goal as anything.
A few concerns:
You’re seeking 40 more W in two months. My guess here is that “noob gains” are about tapped out for you and you’re going to need to change up your stimulus at some point to break a plateau.
This is a really big load change in a short period of time. I would advise training for a while at this 295 number and seeing how it goes before I set my heart on 335. 295 as it is is a more than 10% gain in just a couple of months, and you’re seeking a 10+% gain in another two months. With jumps that big, burnout can happen pretty quickly. Often people will be able to manage those jumps for a couple of weeks before they really hit a wall.
With the above in mind, you need to be less focused on that number and be willing to dial things back if it becomes evident you’ve bitten off more than you can chew.
Have you done any sustained riding at 295 to determine if that number is “real”? E.g. can you sustain it for 2x20 or 3x15 without absolutely crushing yourself? When I see huge jumps in FTP like this, I become concerned about the methods we’re using to determine them and the subsequent peril of training to numbers that just aren’t realistic. (Full disclosure: I am firmly against ramp tests as an FTP determinant, and AIFTPD seems better, but it just depends on what types of efforts you’ve done to get that number).
I don’t think making estimates of FTP gains based on CTL is worthwhile at all, so I am not going to hazard a guess at your estimate being high or low. I was just curious how you came up with that 80 number, and you said it was basically a guess, which is what I was driving at. Nothing personal, just didn’t like the way that was phrased as some kind of “if X then Y” because it won’t work that way for him.
OK, but how do you get 40W from a notional 30CTL increase? What physiology or math is behind that?
Again, nothing personal here guys, but these statements based on CTL/TSS shouldn’t be made in an honest attempt to help someone improve.
I agree a volume increase will eventually be necessary to continue progressing, but none of us knows how much or when that will be given the information he has presented. 3.5W/kg is doable on way less than 80CTL for a lot of people (like almost every one of my athletes that I coach, as examples.)
That CTL/TSS assumes his current FTP is accurate and my advice to him was “go validate that number FIRST.”
Yea, I don’t necessarily agree with the 30tss = x watts or whatever.
However I do think at a CTL of 50, the OPs highly likely to bump up against diminishing returns and/or a plateau rather quickly and should set realistic expectations that don’t involve continuing a 40 watt FTP increases every few months on a mid volume plan.
Agree, he will hit a plateau without a volume/stimulus change eventually. Dunno if he will hit that before 3.5W/kg though. I have athletes ranging from 50-75CTL who are between 3.4 and ~4W/kg. I hit 4W/kg on 55CTL. Just depends on the person and they type and consistency of training. Not all TSS (and therefore CTL) are created equal, as you guys know.
Thanks for the analysis, very helpful. My goal is to make a 200 W gain in one calendar year not two years. I took an FTP ramp test in February 27, 2023 And came out with 135 watts. So in the case of comparing apples to apples, I will take another FTP ramp test at the end of February 2024 to see where I’m at. I took an FTP test in December and came out with 293 W the previous ramp test I did in August was 246 W.
Look it’s an estimate. I’m 52, at mid 50s ctl I had an ftp of 291. At mid 80s it’s 334 (by ai ftp) and 330 in a real hour of power test, no taper. Mostly unstructured, a lot of z2, maybe one threshold per week. In July I peaked at around 340 (about 100ctl)
I’m 6’2 and a bit, I weigh (after losing a bunch of weight in the last few months) 199lbs. Arguably, and again these are all ballpark estimates, a better weight for me is < 190lbs. Unless our man is a he’s probably like me. Even if he is a muscle ball, it’s unlikely a lot of that weight is going to do him any good for predicting FTP. So redo the math, 4w/kg at 85ctl. ← does that track for you? Now make the athlete > 50.
He’s a few years older than me so discount that, but maybe I’m so give him the benefit of the doubt. Can he hit 335. Yes he can. Will he have to take some random dude’s advice on the TR forum, no he won’t. He’s a grown ass man and he can do what he wants. haha.
Good luck @Windsorshaker! I’m rooting for you to succeed like we both know you can.
I’m definitely eager to hear back about how you got on, what the plan had in store for you, how you felt and most importantly how you did. Remember how well you do is a total reflection on how bad I am, so be gentle.
Just to add to the discussion, in my 2023 experience/experiment, TSS does not equal any guaranteed or projected FTP.
In May 2023 FTP was at it’s highest (317) at a CTL of 71.
After my “A” event, FTP was at its lowest for the year (306) at a CTL of 80.
As an experiment, I focused solely on CTL for the remainder of the year (July-Oct) after my mid-season break.
In 4 months I raised my CTL from 72 (June 28th) to 117 (Oct 14th). Which is a 45 point increase in CTL!
My FTP at the end of this experiment was 316 (Oct 30th).
So I basically had the same FTP in May 2023 (317) as I did in Oct 2023 (316) with a CTL difference in the mid 40s.
CTL experiment increased my FTP 3.5% from it’s lowest point, to that of the beginning of my season.
Although my FTP did not increase dramatically or to new all time levels, my ability to express that FTP was enormous. I wasn’t even close to being the same rider/racer.
Experiment phase 2: Increase my CTL at the beginning of the season to see if that translates to a new/higher FTP without carrying all the fatigue from the first half of my season.
I’m carrying a lot of upper body muscle due to being a full time farmer. I do farmers carries every day, but without the kettlebell! Weight is coming off from the consistent biking since last February (Hopefully not too much muscle), better diet, sleep and no alcohol. I think my sweet spot is 200 lbs. might be a few years before I get to that weight if at all. I’m not too concerned about it.
I’m motivated to ride and see how far I can improve myself.
Thanks for the vote of confidence and I’ll keep you posted.
he’s probably like me. Even if he is a muscle ball, it’s unlikely a lot of that weight is going to do him any good for predicting FTP. So redo the math, 4w/kg at 85ctl. ← does that track for you? Now make the athlete > 50.
so give him the benefit of the doubt. Can he hit 335. Yes he can. Will he have to take some random dude’s advice on the TR forum, no he won’t. 
He’s a grown ass man and he can do what he wants. haha.