I said on the Peloton thread - the start up costs of being a TrainerRoad user are way lower than zwift. Potentially just the sub, with a dumb turbo that is supported for virtual power and if you have speed and cadence sensors.
I never used zwift, as I had nothing capable of running it. I then got a new work phone that was, supposedly, capable. I casted it to a TV fine, until I did a big event, where it crashed. The following stage they split the start times - still was unusable via chrome cast, and did that on my phone! As I figured I’d be swapping out door rides for a number of months due to lockdown, I ended up getting AppleTV. This showed up flaws in the old “netflix” TV I used for TrainerRoad. Next pay day was a new TV… I already had a smart turbo, if I didn’t, I’d most likely be looking to upgrade to that to get the full zwift experience.
Pre-lockdown, I was doing my TR workouts before work, in the car park, on my hybrid rollers with a power meter. Previously, I’ve done them on gym Wattbikes. Zwift is not a low tech solution.
Who knows whether TR would get an offer, and whether they’d sell out. I wouldn’t be taking it personally if they did, but I’m really not sure Zwift see the guys as a threat. I’d say they were when both were start ups, but TR has found it’s niche.
Looking at the customer survey they sent out, I’d suggest Zwift could well kill the golden goose, with multiple payment plans for different levels of access. However, as an end user, I see their biggest problem is trying to do too much, over promising and under delivering. For all the feature requests that we are disappointed on timescales, TR never gives false hope of delivering. “great idea, not right now” is the most frequent idea. Zwift is all “we’re working on x, y, z” but still no updated UI (I’m only using since March, and I think this has been promised twice!), no clubs, still relying on external sites for race results, etc. etc.