How does TR AI FTP work? If I’m doing the rides as given on my workout calendar, I would expect my FTP to go up. Do I need to do more than 100% on the rides to cause a bump in FTP? Or do I need to say all the rides were “easy” on the survey? What’s the key?
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Just go do the ftp test
Can you hold the AI FTP 30mins-1h?
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I understand the idea of checking my FTP. My real question is this- if TR assigns me an AI generated FTP and then a workout program based on that FTP, wouldn’t one assume that by completing those workouts my AI FTP should go up? I mean that’s why I’m doing TrainerRoad in the first place. A proxy for a coach to help me get stronger and faster. I’ve been pretty faithful to the workouts (not perfect granted. Work/life…). But I’ve not missed many. And for the second time my AI FTP has gone down despite the workouts feeling (RPE) easier. 
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I don’t really know about TR but from intervals.icu and wko5 the eftp/mftp will also go down, unless you’re doing work above ftp for 20 mins+ your eftp/mftp will rise
The model is only as good as the data you feed it.
What is the general trend of your volume?
What type of workouts have you been doing recently?
4 days/wk. I live in the north and am inside almost exclusively so my volume is down relative to warmer weather when I’m outside more.
I agree. The programs, if completed in full, should boost your FTP maybe 2-5% per block? But I had a similar thing happen, hit every workout in a base block and AI only gave me a few watts. Did a ramp test on zwift and got like a 25 watt boost. The programs and AI arent perfect.
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Volume being down would not surprise me if it was a major contributor to a drop in fitness.
This of course depends on the type of riding you are doing and how it compares to before.
No idea how the tr ai works but most of these have a decay factor built in. If you want to check where your fitness is at you could go do a proper ftp test and see where you actually are.
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I would do so many things for a 2-5% boost every block.
I don’t think it’s realistic for anyone who is already reasonably fit to get those type of gains without a noticeable increase in volume (of course assuming they are training smartly).
Or I could go do a ramp test on zwift and add 50w to my ftp 
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For sure, I can’t tell you how excited to see 1% the other day
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During this time of lower intensity in the off season fitness drops. And that’s ok… can be full throttle the full year, every year.
Depends on many things, including
- what type of block (base / build / specialty)
- volume / intensity compared to your history
- compliance (particularly with the key “hard” workouts)
Also, other measures of your fitness will have changed too, maybe ones that you don’t measure as overtly as FTP, e.g. TTE
2-5% per block! That’s newbie gains territory in my opinion.
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I agree and it can be frustrating when you do all this work and have little to show for it in terms of FTP. At one point TR/Nate talked about a FTP predictor if you complete all the workouts in a block or phase, but it’s been silent on that ever since.
For reference, my last block, General Base High Volume 2, I did EVERY workout and choose harder alternatives/PL workouts than recommended. Additionally, I added a lot of extra z2 with my total TSS weeks being 863, 942 and 996. These were significant increases in my previous months of volume. What did I get for all my efforts…… a 1 watt increase in FTP.
I would have thought and expected a bit more, but at this point I’m trusting the process as I know the Base phase is not about raising FTP. I feel AIFTP is conservative but good enough for setting my training zones. I’d rather my FTP be a bit low than a bit high. However, it’s just not great for my motivation, lol.
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For the last 2 months my AI FTP has dropped 1 watt each month in base 3, build 1.
Compliance was pretty good across the board and PL increased over that period.
Its my first experience of decreased FTP when I was expecting a modest increase, normally I would get 1-2 watts in base, 2 - 5 in build.
It can initially be demotivating but after a few days I accept it and ask myself those questions like would I be happy if I could complete 45 mins at that number and answer is yes.
Its early season and training is a long journey 
I think this says it all really.
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I’d ignore it. Its less than stated trainer accuracy of 1-2%. 1W makes zero difference.
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Ive been using TR since 2013. That is how it works fot me. Starting in base my FTP is usually 240 ish, then after each 4 week phase it climbs 5-10 watts. By the time Im done with specialty its usually 280 ish. It drops over the summer after my race season is done and I just ride for fun.
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From what I have read, both ramp tests calculate the same way. I think I test higher in zwift because pushing until the next banner just motivates me more than watching a clock tick down to zero.
I have a similar related question. If I follow a plan and successfully execute all the workouts, how does AI FTP know if my FTP has changed? If they were appropriately hard for me, my FTP should go up, but if they way too easy, my FTP could go down. In both cases, the workout powers and times would be the same, so how does AI FTP calculate the change in my FTP? One thing that might figure in is HR. But it would only know that within the confines of the included workouts, not with respect to actual max HR.