I think it will just be different. Probably same overall level of competition, but perhaps more varied. And the usual suspects wont be who you think they will be, or were last year.
Some people will use this time to bury themselves in training and recovery. Or…like me…there are just far fewer hurdles to staying the course for a demanding plan.
Other people will go the other way I think. Depressed…no group ride motivation, no race around the corner. They’ll hang up the bike until the apocalypse ends and watch Netflix with chips, delivered pizza, and beer on the coffee table. Not a bad route either IMO lol.
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In my community it seems to be quite polarising. Some people are throwing themselves into training, I’m seeing people doing two a days, racing multiple times per week, tackling epic challenges like getting the 100 mile badge in Zwift or even virtual Everesting, or just logging a lot of time on the bike. Others seem to be thinking “what’s the point” and just noodling around with sporadic unstructured training. There’s not too many who just seem to be carrying on as normal.
The bad news is that most of the hardcore racers seem to fall into the first group! Which I guess is to be expected - the people who put cycling at or near the top of their priorities in life are mostly going to see this as an opportunity to build a bigger base and come back stronger.
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Its going to be divided. As a lowly cat 4 who makes it a point to be friendly / stalk my competition we have everything from guys who are barely riding, to KOM hunters to some now doing 80-120 mile rides daily.
If races start in late august I get the feeling that it’s going to be a bloodbath for those who havent been putting 10-20 hours in a week. Which is what is motivating me to hit such hours now
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Yeah I thought I was killing it averaging close to 14 hours/week since March 1st until I strava stalked some folks. Lots of 20+ weeks with some 30+ers splattered around. WTH 
As has been mentioned previously, I do think there will be a period of ‘burnout’. If you’re not used to 20-30 hour weeks or haven’t build up to that workload, it’s going to catch up with you, even if you’re spinning in Z2.
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do you! if they haven’t been doing those hours regularly, you’re going to see a lot of eggs crack in 6 weeks time…IMO!
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lol just read your comment; agree 100%
I have slowly increased my workload but I’m keenly aware of the fact that it won’t be sustainable. That’s most due to the fact that I (like a lot of people) currently find I have a lot of time on my hands. I can make those longer rides happen and still get the day-to-day jobs done.
Overall, I think I’ve added three hours a week to my training, which equates to one additional long-ish ride.
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I think so too. I know some. They won’t keep this pace with the summer heat. Others I do not know. So, who knows? I’d like to see the Kj’s some of these guys are doing. That would paint a better picture. I know for me, riding both on and off road, distance and time are nearly meaningless metrics as far as a proxy to compare to others. TSS for that matter too. More and more I rely on the Kjs…
I think it’s hard to say. I think a lot of folks might be upping intensity with Zwift rides/races right now, but they are lowering their volume.
Others are doing the opposite – going back into base and upping the volume with lower intensity.
I guess it’ll probably be about the same as it usually is. Hard to structure one’s training for a specific race now that everything is still up in the air.
Harder. I was already prepping for my most challenging cyclo-cross season this Fall because I’m going up against some guys who have been racing for decades in some cases and they’re just more fit, faster, etc. than me. But I’m also really looking forward to the challenge, assuming racing happens.
I also think it’s going to be more competitive in general because a lot of people who were all set for road or mountain bike season just had the rug pulled out from underneath them and they’re hungry for any races they can get. Who knows, maybe it will help bring cyclo-cross participant numbers up?
Just to add to some other comments, I’ve also seen a lot of my competition moved over to Zwift racing or out doing their usual training rides, just by themselves. When racing returns, it’s going to be fierce.
tss is important though; def just as, if not more, than kj…can have same KJ and very different tss, a solid piece to the puzzle
Adding in tomorrow and Thursday’s workout, April will be 57 hours, 3200TSS and about 43,000kj
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I’m training and will be peaking in July. However, I’m seriously doubting that I will race again this year. Here’s why:
- experts are saying that the virus will be with us until there is a vaccine
- aeordyamic models show potential exposure trailing 264 ft behind a cyclist. (Cycling Tips Podcast)
So, one less racer for you guys to worry about.
Here’s where you tell me I’m wrong. Be nice or I’m telling Nate.
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That’s solid work. My year pre covid post covid.
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Fitness is at an all time high but I have nowhere to use it 
I’m going to be a like a child running around with a machete when the group rides pick up again. The entire month of April was inside with the exception of one day where I went outside for an hour to do a 5’ test.
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I’m similar. Too long to explain but, I’m breaking through some long time barriers. Never had a chance to ride this much/consistent…etc.
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Narrator: He wasn’t wrong.
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It’ll balance out… some will be faster, those who increased volume intelligently. Others will be slower due to burnout, lack of motivation, overtraining, lots of noodling without structure, too much Zwift racing, or the overlooked fact that their kids have been at the house all day every day for three months. It’ll return to normal as volume drops and people’s go back to work/life.
I think if it opens up soon, bloodbath from fitness. If it lasts till next season, bloodbath because people will be over anxious and underskilled.
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