When do ftp gains start to plateau?

hey y’all, i started trainerroad 5 months ago at 3.6w/kg. i have seen consistent ftp increases every month since then and these increases have been almost perfectly linear (approx 8w/month) and i last tested at 4.2w/kg. obviously this trend cannot continue, when should these gains start to plateau?

i understand the answer to this question will be “it depends”, but i’m more interested in your personal experiences

impossible to answer, even with all other parameters like training history (or lack of) prior to TR, training load, available time, life stress, etc… (won’t even touch genetic potential…)…

if you want to stretch this increasing line, make sure you:

  • keep an eye on recovery/rest/sleep
  • keep an eye on your diet, closer to the limit this will get more critical
  • maybe start adding more volume if you can handle it (+ versions, longer versions, extra workout)
  • start adding longer endurance rides, preferable outside

i started at 3.25 in jan 2020, peaked around 4 in the summer of 2020, had a dip and back to slightly over 4 w/kg now. When I look at my graph, I know there is still enough room to grow, but -everthing- gets more critical.

Also keep in mind that a sharp blade also needs a base, I notice my base is stronger then last year, much easier to do the 90 minute workouts, (noticable less cardiac drift in the last intervals) and longer outside rides.

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A really hard question to answer.

I remember a long and animated discussion on here when I posted that Andrew Coggan suggested that the average genetic limit was 4w/kg.

Let’s assume for the purposes of discussion that’s accurate. If it is, then the further north you get of 4w/kg, the further you get to the right on the bell curve, and though my statistics are rusty, the number of people still to the right of you decreases very sharply.

So it obviously depends on a whole host of factors, but my very general guess would be that unless you’re a real outlier, it’s going to get exponentially harder as you get materially better than 4/w kg.

Once you become world champ…

And with increasing age as well.

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