It’s worth noting that the athletes in the OP’s weight range who achieved the target time actually (per Strava) held the best part of 300w for the duration of the climb. In ‘real world’ conditions, I think 280 would be the absolute minimum requirement.
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Absolutely. I think you’re right on.
Go for it regardless.
If you had an extremely good chance of attaining your goal, it isn’t a very interesting goal, is it?
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I guess it depends on your starting point.
If you’ve never done structured training, it may be possible to get big gains in a short time.
Have you thought about optimizing the weight of your bike and gear too? I’m not talking about buying a superbike, but things like carrying a single bottle, attempting the climb without tools, fitting some supple tires like continental GP5000, etc. You can quickly save a couple of pounds with little stuff like that.
Also, get one of these wind forecast apps and try on a day with a tailwind.
I’d say that the climb is just 45 minutes so if you manage to park near the start, and warm up just enough to get going, it’s an effort that could allow you to go at ftp intensity for the first half of the climb and maybe go above ftp if you feel good. You could probably do it with an ftp of 235/240 (assuming your formula is a correct estimate), if everything goes your way, if you optimize your gear and lose a bit of weight, and you go all out after pacing yourself a bit on the first half.
(Edit) I now see that other posters point out that the real world power requirement for that time is higher.
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Miguel,
Thanks for your thoughts on this. Without going crazy, yep, I’ve been doing my attempts with minimal “stuff”. I’ve also been setting up for the ride where I have a 10-15minute warmup. When I get closer to the date I’ll see if I can have a friend support me so i don’t have to take along a spare tube/tools/etc… My bike as it is - is reasonably light. It’s a 2015 Cervelo R5 rim brake with Dura Ace (not Di2) and Roval Carbon wheels. I only take one water bottle up the climb, etc…
So, yep, my current focus is just to get good structured training in and lose about 5lbs from now until end of May - goal weight 145lbs 65/66kg (currently 150lbs).
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For sure! Thanks @BlueHeron!
I also have a goal, but it is perhaps not as ambitious as yours. I want to climb the Col de Rates in 20 minutes (A famous winter training climb in Spain, lots of pros can be spotted there):
https://www.strava.com/segments/632370
My PR is currently 22:50 @ 280 watts. These days my FTP has gone up to 307, you have inspired me to give it an all out try as soon as I can. I might do this between now and mid January, let’s see how does the FTP and weight look after Xmas
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I reckon if your FTP is now 307 then you could hold 320 or close up that climb. So getting close to 20 minutes is definitely possible. Good luck!
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I just put up my last Rist Canyon effort into TR so y’all could see how I paced it. This was when my tested FTP was 203 though I did a ramp test 2 days after this effort and I tested at 224. That was about 3 weeks ago. Great weather tomorrow so i’m going to try to break 56min. Previously, I tried using Best Bike Split and it was pacing me too slow. I know this due to previous efforts pacing. If I went with BBS, it was going to have me finish slower than my previous PR. Operator error I assume. At any rate, 1/3 the way through, I picked up my pacing.
For what it’s worth with where I am currently (224ftp), my HR hovers around 160 - 165 during higher sweetspot / threshold work (my max hr is 185 theabouts). Based on the above screenshots, if any of you have any tips on better pacing strategies, I’m all ears
Thanks y’all.
Edit. Interesting, just noticed the Intensity Factor on the segment was 1.11 Correct me if I’m wrong but that’s a pretty solid effort! I’ve heard folks talk about pacing at 1x up to 1.1x for time trials under 1hr. Fairly new to all of this but enjoying learning…
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You got this!
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Thanks @ColoradoJames!
Good solid effort! Kudos.
Just to clarify (no patronizing intended, but you said you enjoy learning, that gave me a free pass to be a smart ass…):
IF = NP/FTP. In your example, 224/203 = 1.1. Since your effort was pretty close to an hour this indicated that your set FTP value was probably set too low. Well, that point was kind of proven two days later when you did an FTP test with a result of 224. Hence the IF with that new FTP would have been 1.0.
Anyway, my point being: That was a great achievement. 57min with an IF of 1.0 is really good! Good luck with your endeavor.
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@blaynechastain How’d it go?
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Thanks Toby! Yep, good an obvious point (facepalm) that my FTP was indeed essentially 224 thereabouts. Appreciate the Kudos and weighing in - and keeping me honest!
In your experience, how much is realistic to push IF? I’m sure it’s a “it depends” answer but perhaps, what is your own experience with IF?
Hey James! Thanks for checking in. Beautiful day yesterday - had a great ride - no PR thanks to pacing to Strava Live Segments and the data it was feeding me was wrong. For example, in the first 10min of the ride it said that I was 1:30 ahead of my previous pace but when you look at the flyover comparison (video below), you’ll see otherwise. I was actually planning on pacing based on Best Bike Split speed suggestions but for some reason my Bolt wasn’t pulling the data in during the ride.
I think I paced things right around upper sweet spot with my HR hovering between 160 and 165 - saving some matches for the final couple steep climbs. I actually PR’d on the final mile of Rist which is great - shows that I had plenty of fuel in the tank and my HR never went above 175 which it typically has gone to 185 on past summits.
One other difference between this attempt and my previous is that I didn’t taper at all and actually had a V02 workout the day before. My guess is that I could beat my current PR by about 2min with the right taper/rest but I’m in the middle of my second block of base training and my main goal is to keep on keeping on. PR’s are just icing on the cake for now.
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In my view you are putting in a greater effort than I want to (I don’t race). I just looked through the last couple of months. My max IF for a 55min ride was 0.97 (there was a thunderstorm incoming and I wanted to get home quick ;)). For 20min 1.05 (KOM attempt). My problem is that outside I have neither flats not hills that are longer than 1.5km and a lot of traffic lights. Hence those metrics always get a little bit screwed because it’s not a super consistent ride.
But again, great effort. Fun to see planning and executing for goals that are rather my ballpark and not 5w/kg. 
“Fun to see planning and executing for goals that are rather my ballpark and not 5w/kg.”
Hahahah. Ain’t that the truth! I’d be stoked to get to 4!
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Stoked! Just finished base 2 and ramp tested at 240w.
10/18/2020 202w (Start of Base 1) Max HR 177
11/21/2020 224w (After Base 1) Max HR 184
1/5/2021 240w (After Base 2) Max HR 185
Goal is 270w by mid to late May. Should be interesting! (at least to me!
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Way to go!
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