For sure. Actually spent some time with my new numbers tonight and calculated that I’d need to be in the 270 to 280 ftp zone for 45min to be possible (at 145lbs body weight).
It’s worth noting that the athletes in the OP’s weight range who achieved the target time actually (per Strava) held the best part of 300w for the duration of the climb. In ‘real world’ conditions, I think 280 would be the absolute minimum requirement.
Absolutely. I think you’re right on.
Go for it regardless.
If you had an extremely good chance of attaining your goal, it isn’t a very interesting goal, is it?
I guess it depends on your starting point.
If you’ve never done structured training, it may be possible to get big gains in a short time.
Have you thought about optimizing the weight of your bike and gear too? I’m not talking about buying a superbike, but things like carrying a single bottle, attempting the climb without tools, fitting some supple tires like continental GP5000, etc. You can quickly save a couple of pounds with little stuff like that.
Also, get one of these wind forecast apps and try on a day with a tailwind.
I’d say that the climb is just 45 minutes so if you manage to park near the start, and warm up just enough to get going, it’s an effort that could allow you to go at ftp intensity for the first half of the climb and maybe go above ftp if you feel good. You could probably do it with an ftp of 235/240 (assuming your formula is a correct estimate), if everything goes your way, if you optimize your gear and lose a bit of weight, and you go all out after pacing yourself a bit on the first half.
(Edit) I now see that other posters point out that the real world power requirement for that time is higher.
Thanks for your thoughts on this. Without going crazy, yep, I’ve been doing my attempts with minimal “stuff”. I’ve also been setting up for the ride where I have a 10-15minute warmup. When I get closer to the date I’ll see if I can have a friend support me so i don’t have to take along a spare tube/tools/etc… My bike as it is - is reasonably light. It’s a 2015 Cervelo R5 rim brake with Dura Ace (not Di2) and Roval Carbon wheels. I only take one water bottle up the climb, etc…
So, yep, my current focus is just to get good structured training in and lose about 5lbs from now until end of May - goal weight 145lbs 65/66kg (currently 150lbs).
For sure! Thanks @biberg!
I also have a goal, but it is perhaps not as ambitious as yours. I want to climb the Col de Rates in 20 minutes (A famous winter training climb in Spain, lots of pros can be spotted there):
My PR is currently 22:50 @ 280 watts. These days my FTP has gone up to 307, you have inspired me to give it an all out try as soon as I can. I might do this between now and mid January, let’s see how does the FTP and weight look after Xmas
I reckon if your FTP is now 307 then you could hold 320 or close up that climb. So getting close to 20 minutes is definitely possible. Good luck!