Probably more accurate than a generic prediction based on population data. As while we all think we are special, there are probably 50 other similarly special people in their data set.
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I would venture to guess then you will like this since the ai kind of removes the thought process on those metrics from the equation. Just let it do its thing picking the workouts for you. FTP is still a factor but you can also basically ignore it.
While it has millions activities of others to learn from, it also will have all of your data and activities, so it will be able to combine a vast array of general knowledge with the specific data of the user to optimize for the best outcome.
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Not this update, but we’d like to do it in the future. Can you show me what you’re talking about, please? I looked at your account but Im not sure what I should be looking at.
It would be super helpful for triathlon if the runs (and maybe swims / other sports) we add on our calendar on future days (with estimated duration and difficulty) would be considered by the AI for its planning, adjusting the bike workouts and FTP prediction. Is that the case?
Side note: Could fitness gained by running / other sports influence my bike FTP prediction (less decline or maybe even gain something)? For example 2 bike workouts a week give less FTP gains than 2 bike workouts plus one run?
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I’m sure it will find 50 (or more) people my age training my amount but how will it be able to compare when it doesn’t know my genetics / lifestyle.
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They will announce early access availability followed by broad release. Same as previous rollouts. If you are not aware of “early access”, check the main TR website (it’s under your account t settings).
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Thanks
So will the system take fatigue from running or strength work into account for cycling workouts?
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The redlight/greenlight system already does consider fatigue from other activities.
Running example, before:
And after:
Strength training example, two days later, before going to the gym:
And after:
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Because it has seen how you and similar profiles have responded to training in the past. If you’ve dramatically changed your lifestyle vs past habits then it might not be accurate. But nothing would be.
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Can someone link the beta thread, if there is one?
Based on previous Betas I’ve participated in, the beta thread is only open to those folks accepted into the beta
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Historically TR hasn’t worked super well for me, but this new model sounds fairly intriguing precisely because it doesn’t care about that other stuff. It seems logical to try to include as many factors as you can try to build the most complete picture possible, but in reality what that ends doing most of the time is adding noise and complexity to make things less reliable rather than more accurate.
You can’t simultaneously control for every single factor that can influence your performance on any given data like work stress, weather/heat/humidity, how well fueled you are, a few nights of bad sleep, etc. But the one thing you can always do is measure the actual power your body is able to put out, and while all these other factors are hugely important in influence that power number, ultimately that number on the power meter will be an accurate representation of the sum total of factors leading up to that particular performance. Track that over time, map it out in relationship to the type of work you’re doing, and the ML can be pretty freaking accurate when it comes to spotting patterns. Overall numbers go up with lots of volume? Add more volume. Does it go up if you do two weeks of VO2Max, but down if you do three? That’s a pattern can be identified.
So @Nate_Pearson , am I reading this wrong or is this new model a relative simplification over the previous one? Simplification is obviously not the right word here, but it does somehow seem more straightforward and less complicated/noisy based on what I’ve been reading.
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I guess this is my point though, it doesn’t know my lifestyle or habits so how can it compared me to other users of similar ages?
The current AI didn’t really work for me (the old Chad traning plans were what I responded best to) but I wait and will try them
It doesn’t need to know your lifestyle and habits does it? It needs to know how you respond to a certain stimulus. If your response is muted because you drink a 5th of whiskey every night or if it is great because you get a message after every ride, the model just needs to find others that respond similarly due to lifestyle, habits, or genetics.
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IMO Even if you only spent a few hours on the forum once a month that would be highly useful for feeling like you’re in touch with the user base. I think that wouldn’t be too much of a distraction from running the business. Likewise for the podcast.
It can a bit aggressive though. I did a 16 min walk and it triggered a yellow day for me.
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As I’m on the older end, unfit range and my goal is basically to get fitter, maybe lose a few kg, and stave off death (my family has a history) - my main concern is that it doesn’t over-do it for me and I keep enjoying rather than starting to endure. I need consistency, not injury. I consistently go with Moderate training approach or Masters plans.
Can anything be said about changes in those areas?
Not a huge deal, you’ve got more important things to work on at the moment. 
But if you’re interested, looking at last week as an example I rode 11:34 vs the planned 10:30 with a TSS of 563 vs the planned 507. Clearly above but in my mind (and my legs) sustainable for sure. However, AT wanted to make every non-endurance workout on the calendar endurance and scale down the ones that were planned endurance, sometimes to a rest day. I skipped them and hit the workouts and marked the endurance ones as easy. I had (and still have) a string of yellow days but haven’t gotten a red yet.
It’d just be nice to know what it saw in that. Was a big week and I’ve only been back on TR for a couple months so perhaps it didn’t think I could handle that. Ideally it’d say…you’re pushing it, we think this is a bit much but if your legs feel good…then keep with the plan.
I feel if it can hit that this is getting to par with an actual coach, to have those convos about how you’re feeling and adjust, or not, based on that.
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