Here’s my own analysis of Van der Peol’s effort:
The model is based on the Peronnet and Thibault power duration model loosely fitted to the race MMP but also taking into account the W’ balance.
You can read a bit more about the project here: https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/power-and-load-modelling-looking-past-tss/
Model:
Pmax: 1470 Watts
AWC: 41,000 Joules
FTP: 426 Watts
Metrics:
Workout length: 6:40:57
Average power: 280.6 (Watts)
Normalised Power: 353.0 (Watts)
Intensity Factor: 0.829
TSS: 459.0
TSS MAP: 411.0 (89.6%)
TSS AWC: 47.9 (10.4%)
Difficulty: 122.048
For me, the amount of time spent with W’ balance partially, or in some cases almost completely depleted shows just how hard this race is.
Here’s the last couple of hours W’ balance:
-
The first big dig at 14:53 is the Berg Ten Haute.
-
Things settle down a bit after that but really explode of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg.
-
There’s a bit of recovery before the Koppenberg, Steenbeekdries and the Taainberg where things are very hard all of the way through.
-
Interestingly, the last ascents of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg don’t draw W’ balance down as far as before but it was clear that Van der Poel was right on the limit as he drew back up to Pogacar’s wheen on the very steepest section.
The last few kilometers into Oudenaarde were easy enough to get that tank filled up again so that he could sprint well this year.
The maximum difficulty (30 minute weighted average of the rate that TSS accrues) occurs at the top of the Taainberg. At that point he had accrued TSS at a rate of 122 TSS per hour for 30 minutes!