The Bell curve of cylists - how fast are the average TR users?

No you cant back date (or back pedal, lol,) or extrapolate and claim I could have been or done this (I know you didn’t do this.) You either did or did not. Either way it doesnt matter.

Given new estimated FTP (AI FTP) I would love to see the same data from TR from Posts 123 (age split) and 200 (raw Power)

I find I race best when I have somebody to chase which is often as I’m not winning anything but it helps me push myself during a race.

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I’d be interested to see a bell curve of AI generated FTPs, to take out any user input that could skew the data. @Nate_Pearson

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AI FTP still bases its estimation on survey results right? Probably would need some fiddling to measure from the ride data (only).

Or just gather it from the FTP tests that were done.

You still rely on weight though.

  • It might use survey info in some cases, but it is not a requirement for AIFTPD.

  • Once you fulfill the minimum of 10-12 actual TR workouts, TR will use any and all workouts uploaded. These can include a ton of stuff from now and into the past, many of which will not have any survey response.

Means you’ve already beaten 96% of the population and can call yourself a winner :slight_smile:

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It would be interesting to see what the current bell curve looks like post covid lockdowns. An updated data dump might be interesting.

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Yes. Id be interested to see the curve of AI FTP detection ftps, to see how it compares to the distribution of ramp/20min/8min tests and manual updates.

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Presumably @NateP means that TR could verify and quantify how AI FTP compares to FTP tests (8-minute, 20-minute and ramp tests). If e. g. the ramp test on average overestimated the FTP of the athletes, then the mean of the ramp test numbers would be shifted to the right compared with the AI FTP numbers, for example.

So comparing the distribution of riders using FTP AI vs. riders doing tests? (ignoring that some may have both AI and regular test results).

Would be interesting, but wouldn’t really say much about why (if there is any) differences might exist. It could be that the riders in the two groups are different or because the tests yields different results?

The only was to differentiate between groups vs. test differences would be to test groups of individuals with different tests within a short period of time.

I am not volunteering for that :slight_smile:

As far as I understand they validated against athletes successfully completing workouts, they weren’t trying to match the numbers of other FTP tests. So there could be differences in the statistics.

This post of mine periodically receives a like (most recently just yesterday).

I am now about a month out from a planned knee surgery and have a latest tested FTP (and personal PR) of 392. Obviously I want to be able to tell people I had a 400 watt FTP - but I’m 40+ and am not confident I’ll ever get back to this level post-surgery. How close do I have to get in the next three weeks to be able to make this claim?

My past sarcastic self is mocking me from 4.5 years ago :frowning:

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Just change your definition of FTP :upside_down_face:.

I think 396 is within rounding error for 400. What test are you doing?

Kudos on the 392 by the way, that’s awesome!

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I do a 40 minute long-form test

So you’re saying I need another four watts - that’s a rough ask :-/ I’ll see what I can do

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Maybe 396 with a 38minute TTE :man_shrugging::stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Also, you can do it!

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Holy smokes, 392 W is amazing! It is exceedingly unlikely I’ll ever get close to that, I’d have to add 50 W to my FTP. This is proper stuff.

I totally understand where you are coming from: I’m 42 myself and my FTP (and other measures of my fitness) are still increasing. This is the last decade where I can see growth.

However, I would focus on your recovery and your ability to put in the work. Priority number 1 is to recover from your knee surgery. Add e. g. strength training, mobility work, etc. if your physio recommends that. And then do the work on and off the bike.

In my experience, bodies have a good “memory” of what they are capable of and if you are that fit, you’ll gain back fitness much more quickly. Just allow it to do its job healing, it’ll then support you.

I can lend you 10–20 W for a day. :slight_smile:

Thanks to the TR team for these data sets! I am a 48 year old man and have been searching everywhere for information to help me figure out where I stack up against the general population on FTP! Great to see these distributions, which is far more useful than just reading somewhere “the average FTP for a 50 year old man is XXX.” This really helps me in my goal setting.