Power meter
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Power Meter
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I have been in your boat and went with a power meter. I am doing the only low volume plans this winter, and i loved being able to train with my pm during the summer months. A pm can be very good for pacing long outdoor rides and of course races as well.
Most folks usually say power meter for reasons you stated.
I’m going to go against the grain and say smart trainer, because I hear you loud and clear when you mention you may be “more likely to stick to your winter training” with a better stationary trainer.
I have four power meters accumulated over the years: Stages Ultegra left crank arm, Powertap P1 pedals, Race Face Cinch BB spindle (MTB), and Quarq spider for SRAM X01 (MTB). For indoor riding I have the Tacx Neo. I would give up all of my power meters before giving up the smart trainer.
I’ve fallen off the training wagon a number of times over the years. More recently was when I moved and was “too busy” (read: lazy) to setup the new pain cave. Fast forward a year and I’ve properly setup my new pain cave with a new 55" TCL TV ($300), THREE (3) Lasko/Stanley blower fans, and a dedicated trainer bike (2009 Cannondale CAAD9) with a brand new chain and cassette. My pain cave is in an upstairs den that’s 25 feet from the laundry room. I always have fresh towels, cycling shorts, and cycling socks on hand. In the laundry room sink, I setup an RO for drinking water, so I don’t have to go downstairs to fill up my water or mix cytomax.
The idea is to eliminate excuses not to train, and setup a system that’s sustainable when life gets busy. I just don’t have the discipline to schedule the rest of my life in order to make time to train outdoors 3-4X a week. Instead, I rely heavily on TR with a smart trainer in Erg mode and use the low volume plans. Outdoor rides are a bonus on top of the three weekly indoor rides.
Outdoors, I like having power meters for pacing and accurately recording TSS. Very useful, but IMO simply not as useful as a convenient indoor setup.
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What’s your goal next year? Everyone wants to get stronger but what do you intend to do with the extra power?
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Power meter. I use a 4iiii single-sided power meter with my Elite Volano, a dumb, direct drive fluid trainer.
Another vote here for the smart trainer. I had rollers before, don’t think I ever did more than 40 minutes on them before getting bored. The smart trainer totally changed my view of indoor training, actually started to enjoy it. Ability to just turn on erg mode and crank out a set of intervals while watching TV is awesome.
I added a power meter about 18 months later but in all honesty it didn’t have all that much impact on how I trained outside. I’ve got years of doing structured training and racing by HR and RPE, the PM helped refine things a bit but nothing that was as much of a game changer for me as the trainer. I do quite a lot of events where even pacing is critical - TTs, triathlons, long climbs - so my RPE is pretty good. First few races I had power I was hardly looking at it but surprise, surprise - extended efforts were falling pretty much exactly in line with what you’d expect. One hour TT a fraction under FTP. 30 minute TT a little over FTP. 40 minute climb at the end of a 60km race was high sweetspot, etc.
Plus it’s only October, get a smart trainer now and you’ve got ~6 months to save up for a PM and to scour the classifieds for a bargain 
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Short term goals…loose weight, get faster, climb better and put a massive hurt on my friends. You know, the usual.
Long term goal…complete the Mt Washington hill climb. That’s a long shot for next summer but doable if I can drop about 20lbs and keep my power. More likely it’s 2 years out and next summer will be some other smaller / easier hill climb like Mt Greylock or Mt Wachusette both here in MA.
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Hey neighbor! Go with a smart trainer, I bet you’ll use it more, especially with winter just around the corner here. I picked up a first gen Cycleops Hammer & did my first ramp test today. Not sure I’d want to be fiddling with gears at high intensities trying to get to a prescribed wattage. Erg mode is going to work great for me.
Power meter. If you’re training for a goal like a long climb, you will need to be able to watch your power on that ride. If you’ve got a decent fluid trainer, the right answer is a power meter. Its not that hard to “fiddle with gears” at high efforts… hell, that’s what you have to do on the road.
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I’ll put in another vote for the smart trainer over power meter. I faced a similar conundrum last fall, and went for the power meter. But then over the winter, I got the smart trainer, too.
I recently sold my power meter, but would never think of selling my smart trainer (kickr). When I need a break from serious training but the weather’s too bad for outdoor riding, Zwift is a good “in between”—and definitely better with a smart trainer.
Why did I sell the pm? Basically, I didn’t need it indoors, and riding outside I’m just going with the group. Since I’m not training alone outside, I just don’t need it.
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I had a fluid dumb trainer for years, which got little use, then got a power meter and used just that for a year or so, then got a kickr core. If I could only have one I’d keep the kickr.
The kickr feels way nicer to ride due to the big flywheel, and I absolutely love having erg mode, particularly for long sweetspot and below intervals where you can just pedal away watching something on TV.
power meter 100%, I only recently started using a smart trainer and honestly the benefits are just the cherry on top for convenience. IMO having a power meter for indoor AND outdoor outweighs only having a smart trainer for indoor (you can track your tss for both indoor and outdoor rides)
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My first inclination was to say power meter, but honestly, smart trainers are incredible. I was stupid, spent way too much on rollers at first, got bored, got a power meter, got less bored, got a smart trainer and I’ve been way more consistent since then. So, get a smart trainer now and get a power meter in the spring. Done.
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Hey Red, aren’t you fast enough already? You on a TR program just isn’t fair to the riders of the Pioneer Valley.
Coincidentally the CycleOps Hammer 1 is the smart trainer I have had my eye on.
Cool, I put my vote down for the trainer too. Erg mode is killer here and you don’t have to think about the power, you just have to keep the pedals turning.
If you want to crush your friends, you can do a lot by feel alone. 
Eventually you’ll want the outdoor power meter probs.
Oh one last thing, don’t worry about being “ready” for the climbs. Just go do them. If you want a fast time on them, if you know the hill, it’s a lot easier to PR.
Good luck!
I was also in the exact same position as you and went with the smart trainer as I do at least 3 sessions per week on TR and ERG mode is a game changer for me. What I did find though is that I wanted the numbers on my outdoor rides as well so eventually got a power meter as well. I could also only afford one at the time, so bought the smart trainer first but then had to save up and get the power meter later on. 
I think you will eventually get both, just not at the same time but I would also vote for the smart trainer as the first purchase.
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Smart trainer vote from me too, I hate the damn thing. PMs have for sure more flexibility, in that you can use them indoors on the dumb trainer and outdoors while riding. I got both within about 6 months of each other. PM first. If a gun was put to my head and I absolutely had to loose one, it would be the PM. Training in ERG mode is just an eyeopener. The sheer persistence of it. It drives me to places, physically and mentally, that I cannot go to with a PM. You can always take those little ‘micro’ rests with the PM driving the train. Not a chance of those with the smart trainer. It is like the most hard assed coach you have ever had.
Now there is a bit of a theme here. Hard nosed, righteous, self disciplined type → PM. Laz-E-Boy luvin, any excuse to cop out type → Smart trainer.
What’s your exact budget? Or, max budget?
Personally, I’m a fan of finding more creative ways to get both. For example - there are powerful trainers out there that cost a bunch, but there are also less powerful ones that are far better than the unit you have today, still have smarts, but aren’t $800.
Same goes for power meters. For me, I’d personally take a slightly older unit (but still new in box) from Stages or PowerTap for a fraction the price, especially on sale. Combine those two and you’d cost less than a higher end single one.
For example, Stages almost always has some clearance stock of left-only units. And Tacx has some great inexpensive trainers if your wattage demands aren’t super high.
So, roughly:
- Which continent/country are you in (as that drives the availability of deals)?
- What’s your rough guesstimate for an FTP and sprint power (as that drives whether some cheaper trainers will work or not)?
- What’s your rough overall budget?
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