Well that woudl be my guess…and that ssumes Shimano does away with a mechanical Ultegra, so PM’s could use GRX shifters to develop an attractive price point mechanical option. This is completely a SWAG and limiting it to 11 spd could do away with the idea entirely. Just kinda spitballing more than anything else…if I was still doing product stuff, I would look to see how I could use whatever parts were available to hit my desired price points.
Agreed 100%…but we are in all likelihood in the overwhelming minority. First rule of product management is that what you like is not necessarily what the consumers want.
I’ve ridden several different electronic groups and have always been underwhelmed. I much prefer the positive engagement of mechanical. If I could find it, I’d be tempted to get a DA mech group before it goes away.
Shimano has never done this and I don’t expect it now…even if they use the current Ultegra Di2 as the base technology, they would still likely do a cosmetic overhaul.
THE critical question will be how the new groups will impact OEM sales, not riders buying groups aftermarket. Shimano has never introduced DA & Ultegra next-gen groups at the same time, so this is highly unusual. Was DA delayed due to COVID or was Ultegra moved up in the development cycle? My gut says DA was delayed and Ultegra is “on schedule”, but I have no insight as to whether that is what actually happened. But given that Force AXS has been out for awhile, I doubt that Shimano would have been that far behind in a similar group to match that.
And FWIW, it is my understanding that a 105 Di2 is confirmed, but not certain on timing.
Sure, but the point was that keeping ultegra/da tech around in a different cosmetic package is essentially a money printing business. If they can keep prices similar to what they have now, O&M will be able to still offer good mechanical options for less expensive bikes (you know the normal $2 to $3k entry level bike now days)
Yeah, I don’t know what the pricing looks like, so it is hard for me to speculate…in electronics, one truism is that stuff comes down in price…except for the bike industry, where it is used to drive prices up.
In theory, the pricing on Ultegra Di2 should have come down with improved volume, mass production and lower pricing in technology over time. But we have never really seen that play out in the market.
It will also be very interesting to see how the ongoing IC shortage will impact availability.banking on electronic may prove to be a massive short-term mistake.
The whole bike industry is banking on the current boom
It will be sad to see what happens when things calm down and bikes are no longer flying off the shelf.
Will the LBS die?
Will prices come down?
Will bike makers start dying off?
They actually aren’t…from my understanding, there has been no significant investment in manufacturing by major suppliers. Most see the current boom as a “bubble” and not a long-term sales increase…and a lot of the demand is perceived as “false demand” as customers are placing huge orders, just hoping to get whatever they can.
So short-term they are capitalizing on it by increasing prices to reflect demand, but long-term they expect the bubble to burst…but I also think the bubble has been maintained for longer than most expected.
My opinion: They won´t. All prices will - again - rise more or less violently in 2022.
Raw material prices, supply chain issues, pendemic production problems, costs of container-shipping, IC shortages. Electronics prices aren´t going down as 3 years ago - that “truism” is not existing anymore.
Many of them proved their worth in this boom by initially selling new bikes, then shifting focus to maintenance of existing owned bikes to meet customer needs once bike stock dried up.
Some will die, but only because they fail to adapt to changes, just like some that still died in the current climate.
I doubt they will “come down”, but they are more likely to stabilize and see less increase in the near term.
A bit like shops above, no.
The only ones that will die are ones that failed to adapt to the current climate. Some were likely hampered more due to their station in the industry, but it’s not as though we saw some groundswell of new bike makers crawl out from nothing into existence and prominence here.
I think most makers played conservative on things like expansion because they recognized the unique nature of this spot vs thinking it is a monumental shift in society that will make this boom be more long term.
PS, I see Power13 hits on much of my thoughts that the industry has not taken this as some sign they will forever see growth like we say these last 18 months. Most know it’s a blip and are planning appropriately.
I think one of the unforeseen benefits to the LBS by all the integration and “complexity” of hydraulics, electronics, etc is that it has increased the role of the LBS. Self-wrenching is becoming more difficult / intimidating and as a result more people just go to the LBS and say “can you fix / adjust this?”
I was / am a moderately competent wrench and even I have just resigned myself to taking my bike to my local shop for some stuff…just easier these days.
I think this just was a smart move by the bike-industry when establishing disc brakes - just think about how hard it was to bleed 1st gen SRAM hydraulic brakes. Can´t imagine they where made for easy self installation.
I don’t think it was done with this in mind, though…just a beneficial side effect of the product direction.
For decades, the LBS community had been concerned as things like sub-assemblies, cartridge bearings, etc. have made bike assembly easier for consumers and everyone thought some manufacturers would go consumer-direct as a result.
Current product trends have definitely moved consumers back into the shops, though…
What is going to happen to sticker prices and market reality when things will return as usual?
Are we going to receive discounts in the order of 30% on a regular basis as I don’t see manufacturers changing their pricing back to previous levels?
I mean we’re now seeing bikes as expensive as motorbikes and the mid range - which has got very expensive in the meantime - now using entry level components that are quite embarrassing.
Just my thought on one small piece of the larger pricing/spec discussion… I can foresee a continued bump in demand for mid-high end bikes due to the many new cyclists from the past 1.5 years. That may eat into some of the typical leftover sales cycle from more normal times since the bike companies aren’t really adding new capacity afaik.
IMHO it is not that they are big per se, it is that they are knobbly instead of tall. Shimano‘s hood shape was one of the reasons why my new road bike has a SRAM groupset even though I live in Shimano land. They are taller and provide a much, much more secure grip when I am in an aero hoods position.
GRX is a red headed step child in Shimano‘s line-up, it restricts flexibility IMHO. It doesn‘t have proper 1x gravel gearing akin to SRAM‘s 10-44 and a big enough selection of chain rings, clearly to make sure that nobody can get any ideas and have a fully supported first. I prefer SRAM‘s modular approach, which is much easier for everyone, including bike manufacturers but also customers. E. g. I don‘t think Shimano officially condones mullet setups whereas SRAM officially supports it as a first-party solution. Plus, you have a consistent design, because to some GRX shift levers don‘t fit visually with “proper” road components.
I think you just mentioned another nail in the coffin for 12-speed mechanical Ultegra, Rival eTap AXS. You claim there is a significant weight penalty. The same is true for most electronic groupsets compared to their mechanical equivalents. As far as I know the lightest groupset is still 11-speed Red mechanical. But electronic shifting has advantages, not least in how easily you can mix and match components without having to worry about pull ratios and the like. Shimano‘s attempt to further split the market with the introduction of GRX was IMHO not a good idea. Moreover, SRAM has effectively moved Rival upmarket from 105 level to Ultegra level. Smart. And Shimano has no good response at this moment.
(Just to be clear, I haven‘t touched Rival AXS eTap yet, my bike has Force AXS eTap and I have played around with Red in the store. But from all the reviews I hear, it is a great groupset.)
There is such a simple, obvious solution to this problem apart from keeping Ultegra around, although I am sure you won‘t like it: Shimano can simply move 105 and Tiagra up market, increasing prices and adding a few features. Make 105 12 speed after 1-2 years, and make it lighter or as light as current 11-speed mechanical Ultegra. Raise the price a little in between 105 and Ultegra. That‘s a winner IMHO. Tiagra will go to 11-speed (think rebadging current 105) and they could up the price, too, in between 105 and the current gen of Tiagra. This way bike manufacturers have a groupset that is cheaper than Ultegra mechanical and 105 mechanical. That 12-speed 105 mechanical will also be cheaper than Rival AXS eTap. Mission accomplished.
In fact, Shimano has done that on the mountain bike side: non-SLX/XT/XTR Deore (plain Deore), which is the Tiagra equivalent, has moved up and has feature parity with its more expensive siblings (12 speeds, 2-pot and 4-pot brake options, etc.). That was as a response to fierce competition from SRAM. I think SRAM‘s Rival eTap AXS put Shimano‘s feet to the fire in a similar way.
The differentiation between 105 and Ultegra (or Deore SLX and XT) has always been quite artificial in many ways: when I bought my mountain bike, the main difference between SLX and XT brakes (apart from the finish) was that the XT brakes include an additional adjustment screw. The screw hole was present in the SLX brake levers, but simply wasn‘t drilled and Shimano did not put the adjustment knob in. That must have saved them $1 during production or so.
I think quality mechanical shifting will become a niche just like drop bar rim brake bikes, because for e. g. ultra endurance or so I can see the advantages. But IMHO shifting will become electronic for most (expensive) bikes.
That’s contrary to what I see around here. Also, it’s not only about price. Even if mechanical Ultegra were the same price as Di2 Ultegra, there are plenty of people who would still choose mechanical because they do not want Di2.
Maybe different markets are different. I don‘t have anything except for anecdata, so I don‘t want to insist that this is a general rule. However, just looking at what manufacturers do, it seems to me all higher-end bikes have electronic groupsets. Some bike frameas like e. g. the Venge will only accept electronic groupsets by design. The only people in my circle who opted for mechanical DuraAce have custom bikes (a Specialized Allez Sprint and a Chapter2 Tere (?)).
Be that as it may, IMHO self-cannibalization is not very useful where you have competing products seemingly at different levels from the same manufacturer at similar price points. Is mechanical DuraAce better than Ultegra Di2 at the moment? The answer is a clear “Depends!” (I think we can agree on that even if we might fall on different sides of the argument.)
Nixing 12-speed mechanical Ultegra and DuraAce seem to be in Shimano‘s (≠ ours) best interest to me, it re-establishes a simple product hierarchy, allows them to explain a price hike to consumers and pull customers upmarket. This is extremely common in the car industry. A current VW Polo is larger than a VW Golf 2, and a 1980s/early 1990s era W124 Mercedes E-class is the size of a C-class. Despite that, a Polo “seems” like a small car to me even though it is not. Marketing at work.
PS I reiterate: I hope I am wrong about this, but I don‘t think I am. Shimano would be exploiting a market where demand far outstrips supply. Rising prices are normal in this environment, me thinks.
On the number of groupset flavors: with Shimano’s supply chain problems, my bet would be that it limits the number of flavors for its new groupsets until at least 2024 when the supply chain issues are supposed to ease.
Long way of saying I don’t expect either the new Dura Ace nor Ultegra to come in anything but Di2. Shimano has to do everything in its power to make sure that bikes can actually come with its groupsets, so selling just two flavors that have high parts interchangeability is the way to do this.
Since Shimano is already the best performing Group set, in terms of shifting performance, I don’t see huge steps being made there.
The FD will likely improve a little, which is always good. Another cog is always nice.
However, things that would really be awesome in terms of improving actual performance:
more accurate power reading
increases shifting speed
finally a 12s chain, that doesn’t have increased friction over 11s
