Shimano Dura Ace 9200 [speculation]

The reason for the demand is price.

There is a steep price increase between Ultegra di2 and Ultegra mechanical.

Shimano doesn’t care. As long as they sell what they have, which they will do, then they will probably move away from.mechanical.

My uneducated guess… This is the end of mechanical. The last mechanical will be Ultegra 11 and you will be able to get for years. Then they will make that mechanical 105 until it dies off eventually.

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The DA is €200 more expensive than SRAM Red AXS
The Ultegra is €200 more expensive than the SRAM Force AXS


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Even though I hope @Joelrivera and I are wrong, I‘m quite sure this is where it is going. I expect that Shimano will, just like SRAM, simply keep its mechanical 11-speed groupsets around, but if you want 12 speeds in the rear, you need to spring for an electronic groupset. In the future, I think the top-end mechanical groupset from Shimano will be 105. Apart from weight, 105 shifts as well as DuraAce mechanical, it is durable, and the differentiation between 105 and especially Ultegra is a challenge.

Currently, very few people are willing to go for mechanical DuraAce. For the essentially same price you can get Ultegra Di2 and in my observation most people go electronic then. I‘d probably do the same. So you have this staggered line-up and because bikes are getting more expensive “anyway”, why not charge customers more? Customers also easily understand the value proposition when they have the choice between mechanical and electronic.

DA - like the look if the chainrings.

Any new Infos about Powermeter(s) ?!
Can´t see any on the Screenshots…

Wouldn’t surprise me if they ditched mechanical, personally can’t think of a single person I know who has bought any mid or high end bike recently without some kind of electronic shifting and at $6k+, why would I not want to have infinitely better shifting? Makes no sense to keep mechanical around if the sole purpose is to satisfy the Luddite customer base who will find something to complain about on new bikes anyway, but does make sense to keep it around for lower priced bikes, much like how you can still buy stuff with 9s on the low end.

Personally think 12s electronic and 11s remains available as mechanical is a good move that will satisfy the biggest audience.

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I’ve just bought a mid to high end bike with mechanical shifting :raised_hand:

That said, I always though that mechanical dura ace was a bit strange… I’d choose ultegra Di2 over that any day of the week.


Lol we don’t personally know each other. I had the same dillema back in 2018ish when I bought my entire Ui2 groupset, DA mech was the same price and I’m just thinking “who would pay the same amount and sacrifice all the benefits of electronic shifting to save so little weight that they would never notice”.

I’ve been talking to my LBS about my new TT build and he indicated that the new DA could be outfitted with 4iiii PM’s.

Apparently the crank construction is more symmetrical this time, which is apparently needed for higher data accuracy. Dunno about 4iii, but if it doesn’t come close to Quarq dub, it‘d be a little upsetting.

105 brake hoods kinda suck…big and bulky.

The wild card in this is gonna be GRX. GRX 800 mechanical brifters are essentially the same hoods as Ultegra mechanical, only the blade is different. I would not be surprised if some product managers start doing some mix & matching between GRX, Ultegra and 105 to hit certain price points (even on road bikes).

As noted above, mechanical Ultegra is a huge OEM cash cow for Shimano. The question will be if consumers are willing to make a trade off down to Rival AXS (and the substantial weight penalty) in order to get electronic. For me, I’d stick with mechanical but my gut says Shimano is gonna lose some market share to SRAM in OE spec this year.

Seems odd since Shimano bought the pioneer cycling division, PMs and all.

From various Cyclingtips mentions, disc brake fiddlyness improvements are supposed to be a big focus from this new generation of Shimano groupsets. That’s the most interesting potential change for me, rather than an additional speed, semi-wireless etc. Haven’t seen anything firm on that yet though, and it doesn’t seem to be something easily spotted on a leaked spec sheet, pic etc.

Second most interesting would be how Shimano approaches power meter integration, whether it be through their own power pedals, or crank based. Hopefully thet contribute to the trend of power meters being more ~reasonably priced. Atleast to my amateur visual eye, the new crank design/symmetry should be a plus on the power accuracy front of a crank based meter is part of their offering.

Interesting because those do not look like the brifters seen on the DSM bikes earlier this year.

I do think that´s individual to your LBS - not officially DA built

Love love love the di2 GRX brifters. Hood shape, the flat on the blade agrees with my hands, and the slightly rubberized coating is :clap:.

As a whole I have a small but unsubstantiated suspicion that OEM pricing on GRX to bike companies must be pretty competitive for various reasons, and that many gravel bikes (in comparison to road bikes) from big companies are actually priced with a smaller margin compared to road bikes of a similar level/spec.

Not sure why a product mgr would include too much GRX on road bikes to hit a price point though. Cranks would be a no due to q factor and need for matching grx FD. Rear derailleurs all come with clutch which would be atypical for road. That just leaves the brifters.

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Not sure. I didn’t dwell on it too much since all of my other bikes have Quarqs and I’d like to stay on that route for some level of consistency.

While I agree this is the direction, I disagree with the speed. imho, the Ultegra mech price point is too important for frame manufacturers for them to embrace Ultegra di2 as the only option.

My guess is that DuraAce mechanical gets dumped this generation, but we see Ultegra 8100 12s mechanical (possibly released in 2022), with 12s 105 mechanical following some time after that. But as for the 8200 generation c. 2025, you may see di2 only, and perhaps the democratisation of electronic shifting at the 105 level as well. Beyond the middle of the decade, if you want premium mechanical shifting, hello Campy.

But all this is just my guess. Anyway, if the embargo date earlier in this thread is right, we find out in a week or so.

I know this is all slightly off topic, but I am indeed a mech Dura Ace owner, and I think it’s unfair to say that electrical is simply ‘better’. It’s different.

I personally love knowing my fingers are directly powering the shift, the speed of it, the timing, the clunk/click. It’s part of the joy of riding a bike at its simplest. I also have Force AXS, and though I love that, I miss mech if away for too long.


Another uneducated guess…

We will see an electronic 105 within the next 12 months…
it will be the current ultegra Di2 but remade as 105.

I can see a path where Shimano will have
ultegra 12 speed Di2 only
105 11 speed mecanical and Di2
DA with whatever new wireless/semi wireless tech they have.

From a manufacturing standpoint it make sense.
they would rebrand current ultegra as 105. They have to invest 0 to do this. They can command more money for it tho (compared to current 105/ultegra pricepoints).
New would be the Ultegra and DA 12. They share many things so it make sense to have the DA have wireless so they can justify what it will be the stupidly high price.

105 Di2 will probably be close to price to current Ultegra Di2, maybe a few hundred less.
Ultegra 12 Di2 will probably be closer to current DA Di2 (probably abnout half the difference)
and DA Di2 will make the dentist of the world blush with its price.

Again… This is what I would do if I was in charge of Shimano trying to make money.