Progression levels way off after AI update

Before last Friday I hadn’t trained for a month, on the turbo or on the road. Now the new AI feature has recommended me a very low FTP. At my old FTP (10% higher than the AI detected one), I can very very easily complete every workout, and I am given fatigue warnings when I am nowhere near fatigued at all. If I accepted the lower FTP, workouts would be even easier, which seems crazy. I have a lot of experience of being fatigued and I know what my body feels like when I am. Right now for sure I am not.

In addition, all my progression levels are really high (see below). Again, I haven’t trained for a month, and before that they were nowhere near where they are now. I haven’t done a single anaerobic workout in the last year but somehow I’m on 4.0 progression. Something has gone haywire. For now I am ignoring the recommended FTP and the fatigue warnings, but it’s not great that the app is so clearly off like this.

Anyone have any advice?

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my 2 cents….AI is trying to estimate your FTP loss in the last month and is being conservative. I would do a few rides, and accurately report the effort. If you are doing Threshold/V02 and rating them easy, the system should be ramping up the workout levels by quite a bit. It will pretty quickly find out where your fitness actually is and start serving you appropriate workouts. I would ignore the fatigue warnings for a while.

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Those progression levels are not “really high” - they look like pretty much the default starting levels to me.

Those are the levels that a new TR athlete should see after they have received their FTP detection.

The higher levels balance your new lower FTP so that the actual difficulty of the workouts is right - probably similar as you had before if you look at the raw watts.

It all looks right to me.

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I haven’t accepted the new FTP. I’ve never seen anything other than 1.0 on Anaerobic progression in the last year, and that’s what it was a month ago. Can’t understand how it’s now 4!

Have you done any efforts at all above, say, 120% of FTP in the last six months?

It will give you workouts that are appropriate. That is also part of the FTP drop you saw.

No

I’ve manually selected these workouts because the ones it suggested were far too easy.

I’m confused. I thought you were saying the workout levels were too high?

4 is the default value.

I haven’t done any anaerobic either and mine is 4.

If you have no recent anaerobic workouts then 4 is perfectly normal.

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I swear it was 1.0 before the AI update though! I guess nothing to worry about if it’s the default

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No, the suggested workouts were all too easy. Even making them harder ones manually they’re still very easy, causing little to no fatigue. Despite that it’s consistently telling me to go easy.

The progression levels seem way too high given that I’ve obviously regressed by ding nothing for a month and being well below these levels before that.

I’d stop pinning workouts to your calendar, as that doesn’t allow us to give you what we think is appropriate based on your fitness.

You have a level 1.9 Threshold workout pinned for tomorrow, which is likely going to be too easy. We’d probably recommend something around 3.3 or higher for you right now.

Also, as others have mentioned, we don’t start your levels at 1.0 anymore, and it’s perfectly normal to see big jumps in Workout Levels. We’re much better at getting you dialed in quicker now, rather than progressing you from low-level workouts over time.

I’d unpin those workouts and let AI do its thing. If the workouts are still too easy, we’ll make the needed adjustments.

Let me know how it goes!

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Yes, sorry, I’m not trying to gaslight you :joy:

This is new behaviour - the levels used to degraded all the way back to 1.0 - now they calibrate at more appropriate starting points.

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Thanks for the comprehensive reply. What’s confusing is that it’s warning me about fatigue and saying I should do something much easier (Endurance 3.6 if I understand the interface correctly).

Similar here. I hadn’t done any structured workouts in 8 months, only unstructured outdoor rides. I resubscribed a few days ago and it gave me a really low FTP and workouts were too easy. I went back and added post ride survey responses for the last months of those outdoor rides, redid the AI FTP detection, and it bumped me up by about 10% so the workouts were more reasonable. I’m gonna do a week or two those then do a ramp test (or other FTP test). I figure that should solidify things.

So I removed the pinned workout and the AI recommended doing nothing. When I added a 3.3 (Pyramidal) it told me the chance of failure was too high to recommend it. So I’m not sure I understand when you say “we’d probably recommend”. Is that you as a human? Because the app definitely isn’t recommending that, and that’s the whole problem right now. If I leave it to the AI the workouts are far far too easy.

Good to know, but how can I have progressed at all if I’ve literally done nothing? A score of 4.0 is confusing to say the least.

I believe Nate said the model is conservative when it’s uncertain, which is commonly the case after some time off and no recent power data. They probably figure you’d rather have a ride that’s too easy and ramp up from there, than risk failing your first ride back.

As for starting around a level 3, that’s if you were to accept the AIFTP drop. It would likely put you further in the progression but at a lower FTP, so it’s not going to make it any harder than what it’s currently recommending.

If you’re confident that the recommendation is too easy, then you can do a harder ride and rate the difficulty in the survey. The AI should adjust from there.

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There is no more “progression levels” in the system, your “athlete level” is just a visual of where you are at. It also doesn’t decay like the old progression system would if you didn’t do that workout on 2 weeks. Your abilities in those areas don’t decay in that time frame.

If you aren’t on a plan, go to the workout list and drop an AI workout of whatever style you want to do and let the system handle it.

I’m not a fan of general we have to use AI in a general sense but think the TR AI system has been great. I’ve been using it for a month and a half so I’ve got some decent experience with it

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