I didn’t know about the 20% variance allowance, that blows my mind.
I meal prep lunch for the week, eat the same breakfast every day, and we make dinners at night. We very rarely eat out, mainly because pre-COVID we both travelled for work a lot. Haven’t travelled since the start of March and we’ve ordered pizza twice since then.
For the things I eat regularly I don’t weigh them but I do get out the scale a few times a week.
Power meter and gamin workout kJ values are within 100 kJ of each other, so the resting burn must be WAY off.
Can you give an example of what you mean by “fueling around workouts”? I’m guessing you mean eating appropriately prior to and after but I’ve never really known exactly what that means. I usually just eat when I’m hungry and get my workouts as I have the time.
I almost always wake up hungry but will still do morning workouts fasted. Like this morning I woke up at 3am starving. On mornings when I run I don’t make it to lunch without a snack.
I’ve thought about trying to increase protein but not sure how. I don’t want to eat more meat and can’t use whey as that just packs pounds onto my body when I’ve used it in the past. I do take collagen peptides currently.
Thanks Nate, you’re right I’m targeting fat loss for sure. I’m not a big muscular guy, outside of my quads, hamstrings and calfs at least, I carry all my excess weight above the waist and am confident I could drop 30# of just fat if not a bit more.
Thanks, I’m mainly just using it as a jumping off point without any other detail available. I didn’t know who accurate it may or may not be.
I’m not a physician, it happens to be my initials and a nickname I’ve had off and on throughout my life. I do have a high stress job and have been trying to focus on reducing that stress as much as possible.
It’s really not - oxidative hierarchy of macros, nutrient timing, thermic effect of different macros etc.
CICO is a gross oversimplification, very useful in certain circumstances, but not for precise nutritional planning.
I think you weren’t actually in a deficit at the end.
I agree with you that most people get to a point in body comp where they have problems losing fat.
A lot of times being leaner doesn’t even make them an overall faster and healthier person so they should probably stop right there.
But, we could have put you into a caloric deficit and you would have lost weight. For example, if you didn’t eat for a week I’d bet $1,000 that you’d lose weight and there’s no hormone imbalance or medical condition that would prevent that.
Everyone’s nailed the things you can’t fully trust:
If you’re trying to lose weight and you think you’re in a deficit but aren’t losing weight subtract another 500 calories from your food each day and give that about two weeks and see how you’re doing.
Since you said you have 30 lbs of fat to lose, I wouldn’t worry about specific macros right now. That adds another level of complexity and stress to the equation.
I would start weight training! That can help accelerate body comp changes even while you’re in a deficit.
I try to avoid these sorts of discussions because I feel like they devolve into CICO yes/no people talking past each other. Not discussing, not looking for common understanding, just leaning into their point of view.
One thing I don’t think I saw was what is your body fat %? Not BMI - don’t care about that. If you are 25% BF, it is one thing. If you are 12% BF, it is something else.
The body works to keep things on an even keel. If you push too far out of the happy mid point, weird things happen. That is why people talk about chronically under feeding not getting the weight losses one would expect - the body shifts the base metabolic rate. But I don’t want to go down that rabbit hole.
Looking only at your actions, not what the body does with those, find a way to make small changes. Good for using MFP. Clearly Garmin is crazy. Maybe let that data go for a while. MFP helped me understand my base line intake and where I could reduce my intake to move the needle. (Sick abs are made in the kitchen, not the gym). In my case, I decided that I had too many not useful carbs. I’m not talking about going Keto or ever “low carb”. I’m talking about, “I want to cut my calorie range 300 cals per day - what do I trim?” Fat and protein make me happy, carbs do not. So we made little changes - way less pizza and very limit alcohol. Watch those calories you drink - in all forms. Juices will kill your efforts. Fruit is just natural candy.
I found that weight lifting added the extra output increase I needed.
I have lost a lot of weight, all when cycling as a primary activity. Everyone is different, but for me my body doesn’t like me eating later in the day/night. Also calorie counting is fine but your spreadsheet doesn’t tell what you have been eating. I would guess there’s some cheating in there somewhere. we all do it 
This doesn’t not show in raw data. Your may need to change the types of foods and portions of those foods to find what your body reacts to. For me I make a huge veggie salad, cauliflower, broccoli, string beans, brussel sprouts, red onion, orange and red peppers, and whatever else looks good in the veggie isle that week. I chop all that up and use it as “base” for my meals all week. This is what I use to feel full. I find this works for me. So I would look at what you are putting in your face hole and switch it up… and maybe the times of day you are eating and exercising. just my 2 cents
“What” you are eating has an effect on weigh loss also. In the past, I have maintained a calorie deficit but struggled to lose weight. However, following simple guidelines of more organic, more veggies, more fruit, and avoid added sugar (except to fuel rides) has brought weight loss on my part. I am probably eating more quantity of food this way; less fat and more protein.
I also use MyFitnessPal but, unless you are weighing your food, another potential source of error is underestimating the amount of food you’re actually consuming (i.e. do you know how small 1 cup of volume actually is?). I find it most useful for tracking overall food trends, but not worth the time it takes to weigh everything (anything) I eat.
If you haven’t already done so, I recommend reading Matt Fitzgerald’s The Endurance Diet. There’s nothing ground breaking in there - eat healthy, eat until you’re satisfied, eat variety, etc - but I found that the way he put it all together into six “rules” helped me find the motivation to really scrutinize my diet and cut out as much added sugars as possible - sugar in coffee, sugar in oatmeal, hard candy in the afternoon, etc. Switching to more whole grains and fewer processed grains is next.
Additionally, sounds like you have a very robust fitness routine. I didn’t see weight training in the OP, though. Did you increase your bike hours when pools got shut down (5500 miles this year vs 4500 usual)? For me, consistent weight training 2-3 times per week, even in “maintenance” mode, helps keep the weight off when balanced with cardio. Maybe dial back the cycling hours a little and add in some weights.
Finally, as others have mentioned and even discussed on the podcast, I’d recommend focusing on body composition and performance rather than weight. I think Pete talked about performing best at 10-15 lbs heavier than his lightest weight. Basically, determine what your goals are, and maybe it is weight loss, maybe it isn’t.
Food labels is the USA also have a20% variance allowed by the FDA labeling laws. I eat 3 Square meals a day, I usually weigh everything.
I’m a full time private chef so food prep, weighing and all that is almost second nature to me.
I eat those 3 meals and fuel the work I’m doing almost always matching KJs burned. I listen to my body if I am hungry, I eat, nothing crazy maybe just a 200-300 calorie balanced macro snack. I am chasing some performance so I’m on the opposite spectrum. I don’t want to gain too much but also don’t want to drop weight, just want to increase my power.
Not as scientific as some people’s comments, but I find that when I have a beer a night (which is a nice default for me while I cook dinner), I put on about 5lbs over a few weeks, all of which is flub around my middle. I imagine this growth would continue for a while, but I haven’t let it. You didn’t mention alcohol, but cutting this out (or down to just a drink or two a week) always helps me trim down.
Yeap this is true.
However my advice to the OP would be to eat more.
First step IMHO is to establish the OP’s calorie expenditure
Be more precise on calorie intake and once both aspects are established the aim would be to run a daily deficit of 300 to 500 calories .
Review after a couple of weeks and refine accordingly.
I would agree waking up hungry is not conducive to the long term health of the OP and a more consistent approach towards calorie intake is needed but a new informed datum is the first step
Yes I agree with that pretty good summary.
My eat more comment was mainly coming from the 6 - 7 days under 1700kcal, for example 1315 with an expenditure of 3187 if anywhere near accurate is very unhealthy and isn’t going to lead to longer term healthy weight loss, imo.
Exactly this.