Even though I’m in Specialty, I checked my AIFTP last night as soon as I could. I’ve been working pretty hard: 14-15 hour weeks, and workouts are going well. AIFTP said my 285 FTP is still valid. Is this because I’m in Specialty, or is my FTP really unchanged? I’m just trying to understand the system and how my most recent training is manifesting itself, or not.
Have you been doing a lot of outside workouts/rides? It’s been my experience the more you ride off the trainer the less accurate AIFTP is. It appears the algorithm likes a controlled environment. I’m looking to test this theory with a ramp test soon. As my ramp test and AFIFTP have been very close in the past.
I additionally suspect this is the reason for the long, long delay of introducing outside WL2/outside workouts. I don’t think they can completely analyze and account with so many variations outdoors.
Yes, I’ve been doing a lot more riding outdoors. In the past month, all of my intensity sessions have been done outdoors, and most of my zone 2.
Do you have a power meter outside?
Generally speaking, Specialty phase is more about fine tuning so FTP increase is not a goal and therefore less likely (although not impossible).
Yes, I have a power meter for outside. And I have a paved rails-to-trails where I can put out pretty consistent power without having to stop or slow down.
KM test makes for a great workout!
Looking into it! 
Echoing what others have said above, I’ve found that the more I ride outside (and the more of those outdoor rides are not following a TR workout) the less accurate AI FTP gets. As my local weather has improved and as I’ve had quite a few events, I haven’t been sticking to TR workouts as much as I do during the rainy months.
I’m objectively fitter now based on known segments and wattage PRs, but AI FTP just knocked 10 watts off my FTP, and my progression levels are way down (because I haven’t been doing TR-approved workouts to keep them high.) This is not a big deal and I feel comfortable enough with the system that I think I can either bump intensity % or “test out” of the lower PLs when I get back to doing more regular indoor training.
Thanks, this is all great info and I appreciate the suggestions. As mentioned, despite my recent AI FTP reduction, I don’t think I’m losing fitness based on both how I feel and setting PRs in terms of power and over known climbs/segments. Obviously FTP as calculated by the system is only one measure of fitness; maybe mine is down slightly (though I don’t think so), but endurance and ability to go deep 3+ hours into a ride have improved.
I always struggle with TR plans when the weather is good and there are group rides or other adventures to be had on the weekends. Skipping a fun (long, hard) outdoor weekend ride so I can be fresh for my interval workout on Monday is just not something I’m willing to do, even if it might be the best for training progression.
This time of year I tend to have an event every 2-3 weeks, so I’m always either recovering or tapering, which makes getting a consistent training block in hard. My usual approach is to try to train consistently for the first 3-4 months of the year (when events are rarer and the weather is bad) then ride that fitness through the spring/summer with less structure. I know this approach will not have me preforming at my best at a single “A” race, but TBH i just pick one of the many events I do as an “A” event for the purposes of plan construction; my real goal is to feel good and perform fairly well for the season. It’d be cool if TR had a plan for this, as I suspect many athletes are in a similar situation.