Just wanted to hear what people think of the recent news that Blummenfelt has plans not just to transition to cycling but to WIN the general classification at the 2028 Tour de France.
He reportedly has the highest-ever recorded VO2max at 103 and is obviously a phenomenal endurance athlete… but still.
What does everyone think about this?
I want to see what happens when he slims down.
It’s not going to happen. I think he would not even going to be a good time trialist.
When I remember Vingegaards 2023 TdF ITT win… he perfectly attacked every corner, every inch of the streets. Blu is just not on the skill level to excel in pro cycling.
You know how Taylor Knibb crashed in the Olympic TT? It’s because she wasn’t used to handling a TT bike on a technical course with a lot of mixed surface types in the rain. It would have been different if it were a non-technical course, but unfortunately it wasn’t plus it was raining. This isn’t a knock on Knibb. She qualified according to the rules USAC set down.
There are a lot of soft skills in cycling. A whole heck of a lot. Usually, you have an advantage if you start younger, because you have more time to learn them. Blummenfelt is 30. He may be preternaturally good at the soft skills bit. I wish him well but his chances are essentially zero.
On his VO2max. Do we know that the metabolic cart that produced that measurement was designed to handle very very high absolute O2 volume? Remember, measurement devices tend to be most accurate near the middle of their range, this has been said about pump gauges and torque wrenches. It applies to metabolic carts.
Second, there was this cyclist who had VO2max in the 90s. Untrained it was already in the 70s. But as he progressed, he just wasn’t winning races left and right. His gross efficiency (cycling power output divided by total power generated by body, i.e. VO2 consumed) decreased as his VO2max went up. I am under the impression that some people think there may be a direct tradeoff between the two, i.e. you can’t have someone with VO2max in the 90s and also very high GE.
Any official source for that vo2max number…?
I wanna see if he slims down enough.
If somehow, somehow, his reading of vo2max is ok, it’s probably from full body type of test protocol. Like xc skate skiing treadmill test where about every muscle is recruited, meaning high readings. Thing just being that you need to do your thing mostly seated in road cycling for a reason or two.
Zero chance he’ll ever be a contender for Le Tour.
As I noted in the Pro Cycling thread, I can’t even imagine a WT team giving him that role. The only team I could see doing it would be Uno-X since they lack a GC rider and it would be a great marketing story in Norway.
Comical, can’t wait to see him in the meme thread.
The best reported figure for his FTP is 410w. Let’s give him a massive benefit of the doubt and assume it’s actually 450w. He is apparently around 75kg.
To equal Pogacars watts (sea level adjusted) he would have to lose 13kg and 0 power of an already probably over inflated ftp that I am giving him.
That completely ignores the fact that he competes in single day events, not a 21 day stage race. Does not have the bike handling and pack riding skills that only comes from racing in those environments. Has to find a team to build a gc squad around him. Additionally Pogacar and Jonas will probably improve by the time he is even remotely ready.
So no, absolutely 0 chance.
Agree with what has been said here. Don’t see him being remotely competitive. That said, would love to see him try, especially would love to see some coverage of the process, And wouldn’t be upset if he somehow proves us wrong.
He wants to win stages, and I’m a big fan but I’m not sure where he might excel. My guess would be as a puncheur…? Cam Wurf does well as a triathlete but he trades as a domestique.
I’ve not seen him say he aims to win the TdF.
And @oldandfast
He is already slim, this is his shape.
He’s stated he wants to win the 2028 tour, not stages. Below is the first link that popped up, but there’s several.
I’m shooting for a 2028 yellow myself actually! Do me a fav and no one come back and reference this thread in 4 years, k thanks haha
He is not slim….he may be “lean”, but he is not slim. He has a huge upper body and that will be a massive hinderance for him on the road.
It just isn’t gonna happen for him. As noted, he has zero experience on the road. Just learning those skills is going to take years and he will always be behind. His competitors will exploit that weakness on descents and technical areas (crosswinds, etc).
Look back at 2022 when Keegan was considering going to the road and had interest from teams……even though his skills and abilities were WAY closer to being a match for success on the road, he was gonna have to start at the bottom of any WT team. So what team is going to say “yeah, we’ll make a triathlete our leader for the Tour!”
It just isn’t gonna happen.
His upper body (shoulders, chest and arms) will naturally shrink over time when he quits his 6 days per week swim workouts. Just look at the physique of an Olympic swimmer versus Tom Pidcock.
Certainly interested to see him try it. He’s obviously a phenomenally gifted and driven athlete and it’ll be interesting to see how he transforms himself. He can certainly drop a bunch of kg’s moving to a ‘pure’ cycling build, and has an incredible base to build off of which is far more important than FTP 
A lot of good points in this article, Kristian Blummenfelt is not going to win the 2028 Tour de France - Escape Collective, his age, pack dynamics, and questions surrounding the Vo2 max claims and it’s validity as a metric in general all point negatively towards it.
Also he had a disappointing Olympics and threw a bunch of shade at the organizers. Imagine the fit he’ll pitch when he hears some of the nonsense ASO gets up to!
He will literally never look like Pidcock.
He is 30… finished 12th in the triathlon…and thinks at 34 (in 2028) he will win the Tour de France?
Only thing that measures up is his ego. 
Yeah, I didn’t realize he was 30….absolutely zero chance this ever happens.
I’ll put money down that he never even rides the Tour.
I never said he would. Just that by stopping swimming daily, he will lose muscle in his upper body. Swimming is like lifting weights…high volume, low weight.
His 12th at the Olympics suggests that was “the Norwegian bulls***” hype train.
Cant see it, but it will be fun watching.