I know there have been many post about AI FTP prediction varying. What I’ve seen in my case makes sense to me. I signed up for an “Increasing FTP” plan with 4 workouts/week. The weather has been unseasonably nice so I did unstructured rides outside rather than many of the scheduled workouts. These rides had higher TSSs and IFs than the plan workouts, and after each, my predicted FTP went down. To me, this makes sense as I was going harder than optimal for best adaptation. OK. Then, due to a number of things that cropped up, I took 5 days off, then did another unstructured out door ride with harder TSS and IF. My predicted FTP went up! Again this makes sense to me, as the additional recovery I had compensated for having worked too hard previously. It seems that when you sign up for a plan and get a predicted FTP, any significant deviation going harder or easier will lower the prediction, which kinda makes sense.
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