How it started, how it's going aka predictions vs reality

Apparently the AI thinks I am on a thin line with fatigue and predicted FTP numbers.

It’s my rest week at the end of a base phase. I had a bigger ride yesterday planned and accounted for in the training plan as a C race (it’s not a race, just a longer annual ride I do, 3/4 of it was below sweet spot, and my time in zones is shown below if anyone cares to check). Fatigue detection gave me a red day today (that was expected). It still kept my 60 min endurance workout for Saturday per the plan. FTP prediction is on Sunday. Prediction stayed the same before yesterday’s ride and afterward.

I went for a walk today at lunch and had my watch record it like I usually do. I looked at my calendar afterward and it had Sunday’s prediction down by a point from where it was yesterday, and it was prompting me to take a rest day tomorrow and showed it as a yellow day. I accepted that suggestion and FTP prediction stayed the same (1 point down from yesterday’s prediction).

I changed back to a 60 min endurance workout for tomorrow, yellow day and prediction stayed the same.

I deleted the walk from the TR calendar and no more yellow day tomorrow, no more suggestion to take a rest day tomorrow, and the prediction went back up 1 point to the same it was yesterday.

I’m taking the e-cargobike to pick up my kid from school in about an hour. Wondering if that ride will have the same effect as the walk. Usually records 9-10 TSS for these school runs, but I consistently do them even though they’re not planned in my calendar. The walks are less consistent.

Editing to add that yes, my 8.5 mins of an e-bike ride for school pickup (10 TSS, avg HR 93) was enough to trigger it all again: yellow day tomorrow, rest day recommended, and Sunday’s FTP prediction dropped by 1 point.