I have been using TR for about 5 years. I create a 3-month, balanced, masters plan, 4x per week, and then I ride pretty much every workout in the plan without any changes. I don’t customize anything, I just ride whatever TR tells me to ride.
My FTP as detected on TR has always seemed accurate to me, until the new AI FTP ‘feature’ came along. Now my FTP is all over the place, up and down, without what seems like any rhyme or reason.
I no longer have confidence that my TR scheduled workouts are appropriate for me, because I no longer have confidence in the FTP that TR is giving me.
I realize that FTP is just a number, but I use it both to measure my progress and to motivate me, and in the past it has been very useful for both of these. Now it seems like it is arbitrary. It is confusing and demotivating.
I hate having AI added to every software and subscription that I have.
For me, AI FTP is a step backwards. After five years of being very happy with TR, if I do not have the option of reverting to the old FTP model, I am afraid that when my TR annual membership expires, I will be exploring other options.
EDIT: I figured out how to turn off the predicted AI FTP, so that’s good. I guess now my question is whether the AI FTP is only related to the predicted FTP, which I hate, or whether it is connected to the regular 28-day FTP detection, which has always worked well for me. I guess I’ll find out in 18 days.
Thanks Joe. Yes, I would say that I do feel I am getting appropriate workouts. So I guess that it is the main thing. It’s just so disheartening to be consistently working my butt off and see my predicted FTP go down as a result.
At first, my predicted FTP skyrocketed, and I was like, “Oh wow, I’m amazing”, even though it seemed crazy. Then it steadily decreased to what I thought was a realistic level, and I thought, “Okay, that’s fair”. Then it kept going down, even though I was doing all the recommended workouts, and now I’m thinking there is something wrong with me because my discipline is good and my perceived exertion is pretty high, but my predicted FTP keeps going down. So yeah, I’m happy with the workouts I’m getting, I guess, but whereas I used to find TR was just rock solid and I never questioned it, now I find it kind of bizarre and confusing.
Can you clarify what you’re saying here? Your whole post is about how you don’t trust the AI FTP but then you edited it to say you’ve turned off AI FTP, but still want to see the AI FTP because it works well for you. What is it you do and don’t want to see/use?
Yeah no kidding, I feel the same way! But I can usually see where I have gone astray (usually by “adding stuff”). Some context about why the prediction does what it does would be nice for sure.
My take is that it gives you the most optimistic result after a perfect 4 weeks. Then we mess up this and that and it readjusts. In the past you’d train all month and hit the button, hoping for the number to go up. You didn’t get this “by the day update on what is going to happen” thing. But the outcome varies just like it varies now, you just didn’t see it.
Not sure if that’s right but that’s how it seems. Personally I like it but my wife hates it so opinions appear to vary!
each month it resets with an outrageously high increase in FTP projected at the end of the month. my month 2 was predicting a 10.6% increase. Even with 7 days left it was predicting a 10% still. Then all of a sudden it plummets at the end of the 28 days. Result is a 4% gain (which is realistic and I am happy with).
Month resets with a new future prediction of 6.3% which is above the previous 28 day prediction at the end of month 2. This is also an overzealous prediction and will quickly and suddenly change one day.
What you have to understand that makes it frustrating is when these big changes occur. You may miss a workout, and it stays the same or goes up. Then you complete a workout and feel great about yourself and accomplished (and rate the workout appropriately). The AI will do a sudden overnight update and 4 watts vanish off the prediction.
At this point, I observe what it does (obviously), but I simultaneously discount its accuracy as being anything other than a Gimmick.
One can be happy with the FTP prediction at the end of 28 Days giving them appropriate workout progression, while also being annoyed by the random AI FTP prediction that is presented throughout the month.
Showing a calendar is never going to show someone what is happening with the AI FTP detection because It wont show you what was 1. planned vs completed 2. the daily/hourly adjustment of the AI FTP prediction.
Many of your aren’t experiencing this extreme variance and it shows in your posts.
I’ll grant you that, that’s a fair point. Nonetheless I also think its fair to say that 9/10 posts related to “FTP going down, don’t understand what’s happening” do have visibly plausible explanations when the calendar is shown. Not always. But very very often,
Besides that, what is the post even for if not to get help from the community in understanding the problem and how do you get help with understanding the problem unless you show the community what’s going on?
Do you do many/most of your rides outdoors? There’s currently a bug where outdoor riding messes with FTP predictions and they are working on it.
@greeninaustin Showing a calendar would show you planned vs completed. If they have the AI sparkle, then the user has completed the recommended workout by the AI. If the sparkle isn’t there for a ride/workout, then the user made a modification of some kind. You’re correct that you can’t see how the FTP prediction changed.
And because I have no confidence in the FTP predictions because of these wild and seemingly arbitrary swings in AI FTP, I have little confidence in the FTP detections when they do occur.
For those suggesting I may be mucking up the process with extra work and such, I only log my TR rides on TR and I stick to the planned workout religiously. So that is not it.
And for those asking me what I am looking for, I would like the option to go back to the way things were a few months ago. I was happy with the way it was and I am not happy with the way things are. Simple.
I don’t know why more people don’t do this, but I like setting my FTP manually to what the old system likely would have given me, so then it’s can work up the levels of each energy system. The system still gives you tailored workouts, but just relies on a different anchor wattage. This also turns off the ‘play by play’ AI. It’s still happening in the background, so you can check in once in a while by accepting the AIFTP, and deleting it immediately after.
Based on feel, and how you are progressing through your levels, you can increase your FTP manually to reflect your fitness increase over time.
On your web browser, on the left panel just select “Account” and you will see a box for FTP - just enter the value in there and save it. Just set it to what you think you could hold for 40-70 minutes (typical definition), and see what workouts if starts giving you. You can decide if the number makes sense for your training or not.
I assume the post is for therapeutic validation that he isn’t alone, and how others have coped with it. He also needs to know, can he turn off the 28 day prediction without shutting off the AI FTP. “Are they mutually exclusive?”
I have learned to cope with it and toggled the things off as necessary. I would like to turn off the prediction number as does the OP. It seems that may have become available?
I’m not sure but you’re right, I do feel as though I have a memory of somebody figuring that out at some point somewhere around here? @kevistraining seems to know more than most about how to use the platform and interpret the data. There’s a few other power users on here but they aren’t springing to mind.
LOL, it seems like we are all having similar experiences.
I have a FTP prediction coming up on Thursday (in two days). Before my workout today (anaerobic), my prediction was 294 up to 298. I was feeling confident that maybe it would hold up this time (I’ve been through the cycle 3 or 4 times now), as the workout felt good and I marked it as a moderate effort. The prediction now says 294. I’m not saying it’s wrong, but I think this is like what many of us are experiencing. I typically chalk it up to the fact that I do a fair amount of commuting (strictly Z2) that doesn’t fit into my TR plan, but given that the new FTP is coming up so soon I thought I might be safe, but I guess not. On the idea that FTP isn’t everything, I am feeling really good and strong on the bike, which is great. On the idea that FTP is important, I know I still don’t have the w/kg to hang with the fast kids on the climbs, which makes me feel old, which I kind of am (55).
Sorry for the lack of a question or a solution, but I know that misery loves company.
This is possible. Go to the prediction day on your calendar, click/tap on the FTP prediction, click/tap Edit (pencil on the bottom left), toggle AIFTP prediction.
Using a manual FTP number will always turn off the AI FTP prediction.
I am super impressed with all the contributions that people have made to my initial post (which, due to my lack of information, was admittedly not terribly well framed). It really feels like a community here.
I could set my FTP manually, but I do really like getting the result from TR and patting myself on the back when my FTP improves. I use the FTP detected by TR both as an objective data point but also for motivation.
As for the AI predicted FTP, for me at least, it is a waste of time. When the predicted FTP goes up 10.8% after two workouts, then down 6% because I missed an easy Z2 workout, then goes down 3% after I crushed a Threshold workout, that’s not a smoothing problem - that’s just a bad algorithm. There is no way that any decent AI would provide those kind of fluctuations given the thousands of data points that TR has available to it from my rides on the platform over five plus years.
I really appreciate everyone’s ideas and suggestions. I am going to try and figure out a way that I can basically go back to the way things were circa mid-2025.
As a side note, this is really the part of AI that I hate. It is bad information that I didn’t ask for, don’t want, and can’t rely on for anything. But it twinkles and glints and advertises itself as the greatest thing ever, always trying to convince me to look at it and rely on it. I can’t turn AI off fast enough.
AI (or ML) is what is picking your workouts and making sure you are given the right workout every time.
I think it’s absolutely amazing at this.
The predicted FTP is only really half AI - it uses the predicted RPE for each workout but it only follows a straight line through the most likely path so is prone to fluctuations.
If you can’t handle the fluctuations then turn off the predicted FTP - but the use of machine learning for the workout picking is producing truly impressive results for me.
I think it’s incredible that I haven’t done any kind of FTP test for years but I can just jump on my turbo trainer and the workout is perfect.