FTP assessment vs actual

Just started TR.
Chose adaptive training.
FTP assessed was X, based upon 3 power measured rides.
Did an FTP 20 minutes test outside and associated it with the FTP 20 minutes workout.
The result was X-10 Watts (average power per the 20 minutes lap x 0.95).
I was expecting the career FTP to change accordingly, but it remained at the higher X.

What is quite remarkable, scientifically, is the algorithm TR is using to assess FTP.
They had only two powered rides, although lots of BPM recorded ones, and only my basic physiological stats…and yet their assessment was only 10W off?
That’s almost negligible scientifically, given the different challenges an outside FTP test presents.
Well Done !!!
Remarkable !

I assume that you can underperform or outperform during an individual testing day. Say you had horrible sleep the night before the test, but still decided to do it and underperformed by a significant amount. Would the TR algorithm look at that performance relative to your other rides and just assign that number? I assume the answer may be no and that the default is to take the FTP number based on the broader data set as opposed to just one individual effort.

I thought that a dedicated FTP test carried a more valid FTP data that will in turn have more “influence” regarding the career FTP.
If it has the same impact regarding the FTP algorithm then it makes FTP tests (or ramp tests) obsolete, in the TR context.

It’s probably a good assumption that it would carry more weight than a typical workout, but in the context of a broad data set, who is to say how much. They likely vetted this point closely, I’d assume. Only TR knows, but clearly as you pointed out, they seem to be doing a pretty good job at the estimate.

I think the AI FTP detection is a great tool to have, but I think I’ll also choose to intermittently do the 20 min or ramp tests to figure out where I can do such efforts in the context of how I’ve performed in the past.

I’m not sure you can associate an outside ride with an indoor FTP test and have the system behave the same way. There’s a bunch of internal workout logic in the FTP tests that wouldn’t carry over. If you want to use the result you got from the outside ride, you’ll need to manually update your FTP.

That’s the intent! TR has said you’ll always be able to choose an FTP test if you want to do one, but once they’re happy with their model, the plans won’t schedule them by default.

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