I had a forecast of increasing my FTP from 207→213 in about 14 days. I have done a 3-4 workouts and with no change in predictions. Today I did the “Cloudripper -2 Threshold 3.7•Over-Unders” and it was hard but I managed it. After about 8 minutes I had a 40 sec pause adjusting my saddle. I rated the workout as “Very hard” as it was supposed to be.
Now my prediction is 207→209. Why the 4 watt drop? Is the pause affecting this?
Or is the very high hearth rate I have from time to time when I get extrasystoles when I am around 155-160 bpm. Hearth rate jumps to 190-210 for a little while before going back to normal, I don’t feel it, just sees it on the computer. I am 66 years old and the extrasystoles has been checked by doctors.
It’s demotivating following a plan that lowers the expected goal when you have done the expected job.
A number of folks have posted similar concerns about the pauses affecting the predicted FTP. I will agree - it’s demoralizing and I hope TR can find a way to handle this.
Cloudripper -2 is rated 4.0, but you only got a 3.7 credit for it. That would normally imply you fell short of the power targets in the intervals - can you post the workout details?
If the model thinks you’ve done less than it wanted and still rated it very hard, that might explain the drop. That’s not to say the pause and/or HR didn’t have an effect, but the power is the first factor I’d try to rule in/out.
Coincidentally, I just completed Cloudripper -2 as well. I paused in the last steady-state section to grab my water bottle that I dropped. It was 5 seconds or less. I marked it very hard.
My prediction dropped after completing this workout from 271 to 267. I am currently at 269.
Your pause wasn’t long enough for TR to register it (as a pause with impact). If a pause has an effect on workout levels it is displayed a message about it below where it says Workout Level in your screenshot. You have also gotten higher WL recognition than the original workout, not lower.
Your issue is more likely that you rated it very hard. The AI has you a bit more likely rating it hard and depending on how long it is to your FTP prediction it might be that the AI thinks that you should find a 4.0 WL threshold workout a bit easier at this point to warrant a higher FTP.
This is where the weakness in the prediction becomes most evident.
The reason the prediction dropped is because the most likely RPE response for that workout was “hard” so that is what the prediction was based on - even though it was a roughly 50/50 split between the two.
Answering “very hard” changed the prediction.
Even though the prediction has weaknesses - doesn’t mean it’s not a cool feature though.
I was reflecting on that earlier this week. My initial prediction was 303 which was pretty close to my June goal of 306. All because mentally I had the goal of “drive to 3.65w/kg” which involved getting to 185lbs and 306w by June, just so that I can hang with my younger brother and some of my college roommates. I’ve been bouncing around 184-186 for a couple of weeks now, so goal one accomplishment (242 → 185).
Did I really want a pile of very hard rides in February if I was still on track for the goal, even with unplanned surgery coming up.
Cloudripper is a 4.0, so it wasn’t the expected goal. But another way to look at it is it gave you real time feedback. You can make adjustments as needed after not hitting the target.
Previously would you have been happy in 28 days if you hit AI FTP and got 209? If you would have look at it as staying on track. If you wouldn’t have then you now can make adjustments maybe lengthen a workout. Less demoralizing then get a result you don’t like after 28 days with no feedback.
I took a look at your account, and it looks like you just stated a training plan on the 29th of January, and before that it was very sporadic training throughout 2025.
I see you were sick before starting the plan, and so far only completed 2 interval workouts, and next week is a Recovery Week, yet you are still seeing FTP gains 207 >> 209. So this is good! Plus you’re still 2 weeks out from the prediction. Think of AI FTP Prediction as the weather forecast, as you complete your training and get closer it becomes more accurate.
I would also try to not get too fixated on the predicted number right off the bat and give the plan a little bit of time, respecting what it gives you and the Yellow/Red Days. Fitness comes with time and consistency, and our FTPs can fluctuate daily. You’ve rated the prescribed the interval workouts as Hard and Very Hard, so this is a good sign you’re getting the right workouts that exercise the energy systems to see fitness gains. So I feel confident you’re on the right track.
I also see your plan only lasts 2 months, I would encourage you to create a longer plan to maintain that training and fitness growth over time.
