You shouldn’t be penalized by having slightly lower power during rest intervals. It’s the hard work that’s the most important. 
So question. I took photos of my FTP prediction this time. It’s been steady at 250+ for the past week or two (other than the pinned workout mix up). Today I did my final workout and I did excellent. It was hard but I still could have done several more intervals at the end. My numbers were in range but my prediction dropped 2 watts to 248. I’m not really concerned as it’s close to where I think I’m at — just more confused as to why it would drop on the last workout I nailed (indoors Erg mode). Should I rate it moderate since I could have kept going? It did feel hard, but everything above z2 feels “hard” to me. Lol.
Makes no sense. You did what was recommended, indoors, successfully. That workout is a race sim so HARD seems appropriate RPE.
Is this what is actually going on:
AI gives a prediction that leads to high motivation to train (and renew TR!). “wow, I’m going to hit X w/kg finally! i just need to do exactly what Im told.”
As you get to detection, AI levels with you. “Yeah about that prediction… you see based on your historical data you will never hit X w/kg. Let’s stop pretending that you can defeat genetics. Here is a realistic number that is basically your physiologic limit. Wait, before you cancel, here’s a new prediction back to X W/kg again. You’re far from your physiologic limit. I promise. Just trust the process gain.”
You make it seem like TR is being sinister and manipulating the prediction strictly to keep feeding a “w/kg addict”.
Sure. They’re a business and they’ll push their “perfect workout every time” sort of marketing but I don’t think they’re being sinister with their predictions.
What a conspiracy man.
“Thanks for the laugh” yeah, let’s laugh at people who are frustrated with the software sometimes behaving very weirdly or in ways that don’t make sense.
I don’t think it’s sinister or even intentional, but what andho describes is exactly my experience. I had my detection yesterday, two months with no gains. I’ll keep TR active for a while to record rides, but for the rest of the summer, I’m just going to go ride my bike bunch. That’s what has made me faster in the past.
I know the bug is getting blamed for a lot of things, but it feels deeper than that. TR spent a couple of years trying to incorporate outdoor rides with Workout Levels 2.0. We heard many times on the podcast how difficult it was to evaluate outdoor rides. My hunch is that the issue was never really resolved.
I’m pretty happy with TR in general. I recognize I’m getting near my top end power for this season for FTP ( I had a lot of gains initially because I took last year off for a back injury) so the gains are slowing down now. I’d be happy with a realistic prediction as well. I think it was predicting 265 for me a month ago. Which would be about 4.49 watt/kilo. I think I’ll get there, but likely not this season. Over time It does feel psychologically draining if the prediction is unattainable. I was up to 250 FTP before I got the month long flu a few months ago so I figured I could get back to this number faster. I’m stronger now than I was then so a bit confusing.
I’m sharing this case with the team now.
Firstly, that was a posed as a question; I do not believe the prediction model of TRs AI was set up to maximize subs. Too, a conspiracy implies intent which doesn’t fit the vibe of this company and I’ve been a user for a long time. What some users are experiencing, however, is that the AI is not delivering what is literally a banner ad on this forum.
I’m not disagreeing what’s happening to users but why bring this question into it?
Yes, I do like the FTP prediction carrot. I just wish it was more in realistic range because instead of celebrating my gain which is substantial it feels like a loss. So requires a reframe there. I’ve personally been helped enough by TR thus far that I’m willing to ride out the curve as they sort out the AI. A live coach isn’t in my budget so this seems a second best option and I’m realistic about what that means. It can’t be completely tailored to me. And the staff are helpful with all my questions!
Lighten up Francis.
Deleted the “laugh” part on the second i posted it not to hurt the feelings of OP. Having problems with your training software isn’t fun, but the conspiracy made me lough, not gonna lie. Its a weird way to make people pay attention to your matter.
I don’t think it is a conspiracy, but I do think AI prediction was poorly planned and implemented, and has caused much friction with users.
I also find it just frustrating. For me it is a very good indoor platform but for outdoor cycling just not so good. If they eventually manage that outdoor cycling is easier to integrate (as with Xert) and the AI FTP prediction is accurate, then I will subscribe to it all year round. So I will only use it in winter.
@eddie circling back to my training history, I don’t think that VO2 level ‘decays’ away fast enough, at least for me. My current PL is 5.7 based on completing Marengo on 23 May, three weeks ago. While I was having a good day, I dialed down the intensity a little on the final set. I marked this workout Very Hard. (Looking at this now maybe I should have rated it Max Effort.)
Since that workout, though, I failed Keeper and haven’t done any VO2 in two weeks due to vacation and travel / recovery week. Not sure why my VO2 PL is still 5.7. Seems like it should be much lower.
I’m going to change Marengo to Max Effort to see what happens and/or change my Training Approach to Conservative (lowest setting) for VO2.
Interested in your thoughts on this.
EDIT: Changed Marengo to Very Hard. TR replaced Thimble +1 (5.7) with Foerster +2 (5.5). Doesn’t seem like enough of a reduction to me.
I’m taking a look now, but keep in mind that we don’t use Workout Levels to prescribe workouts anymore. It’s all based on power data.
Yes, tracking. I cited PLs in my post as an easy way to describe harder versus easier workout.
Changing the Training Approach for VO2 to Conservative changed tomorrow’s VO2 workout to a 2.9 (30/30s @ 117%).
So the problem is that your VO2 workouts are too hard?
Was that the issue with the workout on the 27th?
I just realized that we don’t decay Athlete Levels the same way anymore. It’s now a 28-day rolling figure, so that’s why you’re still seeing levels from the 23rd.