Event Planning how do you know what time/effort to aim for?

I’ve got two events in my plan for this summer, both around 100km, one on mixed terrain and one all tarmac. Neither are races per se, but I do want to do well and put some effort in, so they’re my B and A races, respectively. I’ve already done a similar route to the road audax in just under 6 hours moving time on a chilled, slightly lost day. I was also on the gravel bike, so using the road bike with deep wheels will bring the average speed up a chunk.

When I put the events in my calendar, I had zero idea of how long or what effort I should put since I was coming back to training after bereavement my killing fitness and motivation. Since it’s 6 weeks before the first event, I will only get faster should the times expected on the day be adjusted? Should the intensity be adjusted as for the gravel at least I’m planning on hurting.

Aside it would be good to add some guided help in choosing this information.

Devon Dinger 100

Cornwall Grit Long

Neither of those are going to be flat jaunts are they!

Are you riding to power, HR or feel? Audaxes have a capped top speed to right?

For planning have a look at Intensity Factor, or IF, probably about 0.7 would be a good guess. How To Build A Pacing Plan For Long Events - TrainerRoad Blog

Keep in mind that these articles don’t take into account Devon lanes and the type of descents you’ll have. So you will have to go harder on the ups, and can probably coast the descents to end up with a similar number.

I’ll be riding with power on both bikes.

Audax I’ll have the route with an estimated completion time shown so as not to go too fast (highly unlikely but…).

I’ll read that blog thanks, glad I’m not the only one who appreciates the South West hills! Always going up or down, never flat.