Elevated HR = Over-reached?

Was doing pretty good there a couple months ago. Completed SSB1 and SSB2 Low Volume. Completed my first two centuries. Was getting to the point where I could keep a 17/18mph average on solo 35-50 rides without killing myself.

The past few weeks though my heart rate has jumped up considerably for the same efforts. Every time I look down at my HR these days I’m seeing it way way off. Lack of sleep has been an issue of late as well. I’m wondering if I need a big break. Also wondering if it’s just getting hotter out.

Take these two rides - about a month apart - at relatively the same temps based of max HR of 177:

Ride 1: 50mi - 2200ft - 18.6mph avg: z4 Threshold 155-172 was 7% (75F/30 humidity)

Ride 2: 36mi - 1400ft - 17.7mph avg: z4 Threshold was 40% and z5 2.5% (80F/60 humidity)

I usually find that a suppressed HR is more indicative of fatigue or poor available energy. My HR jumps crazy high in warm weather. Endurance HR turns into sweetspot HR. Just not used to warm weather.

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elevated resting HR is an indication of over-reaching. Decreased HR during workouts is also an indication